Caracas, Safe... Mexico... Some Parts Are Fine And Some Parts Are Definitely Not

If you've been following this blog, you have probably figured out that I'm kind of an intrepid traveler, in as much as I travel a lot and have been for a long time and I go to some whacky places-- from Tierra del Fuego to Lapland and from Mali to the Himalayas. But what I'm not is swashbuckling or heroic. I'm not making plans to visit Somalia, Yemen, Iraq, Syria, Congo or anyplace I feel is legitimately dangerous. It doesn't keep me from visiting places like Mumbai, Jerusalem, Bangkok, Mexico City, London or New York City-- all places that report dangerous situations from time to time-- but I try to be careful. So I really had to laugh when some friends in the L.A. Philharmonic said they were worried about a trip to Caracas. Grammy winning conductor Gustavo Dudamel just brought the orchestra down there for the series of Mahler's symphonies they just finished performing in L.A. Earlier today, the NY Times applauded the whole endeavor-- and so did Venezuela:

El Sistema, Venezuela’s national music program aimed at young people, put on a major show of orchestra playing and singing for the visiting Los Angeles Philharmonic, its staff and patrons, who are in town for a Mahler symphonic cycle. But the attention of the enthusiastic crowd of young performers, parents and others around the Teresa Carreño Theater was focused on José Antonio Abreu and Gustavo Dudamel.

Mr. Abreu, El Sistema’s stooped but mentally vigorous patriarch, and Mr. Dudamel, the program’s most famous product and the Philharmonic’s music director, were mobbed. When Mr. Dudamel went to greet some young musicians in the cello section, they burst into exciting bobbing. “Gustavo!” people shouted from balconies... [T]he atmosphere was redolent of the sometimes religious-seeming trappings of the culture of El Sistema, whose exponents speak of love and peace and remain involved for decades. El Sistema’s proponents are indefatigable evangelizers for its mission of helping the poor through classical music.

The musicians had been sternly warned before embarking from L.A. how dangerous Caracas is and they were warned not to leave their hotel rooms. Sound screwy? It is-- and it's based on what? Corporate America's hatred for and propaganda against a national leader who sticks up for the working people of his country. I hope no one locked themselves in their hotels rooms. It would be a real waste.

Perhaps more realistic-- at least to some extent-- was this week's travel warning from the U.S. State Department about Mexico. I travel there a lot and have never run into anything I would consider dangerous. In December we spent the better part of a month in Mérida, capital of the Yucatán. Nice and relaxing, except for the mosquitoes that gave me dengue fever. But the warning isn't about dengue fever-- or the Yucatán.

The State Department advised Americans this week to defer “non-essential travel” to vast stretches of Mexico, warning that 14 of the country’s 31 states are so dangerous that visitors should avoid them if at all possible. For four other states, it counseled caution or extreme caution.

The travel warning is at once broader, more detailed and more alarming than the previous one for Mexico, issued in April.

The new warning became public as Mexican troops announced Thursday that they had seized 15 tons of pure methamphetamine outside Guadalajara-- an amount equal to half of all meth seizures worldwide in 2009.

State Department travel warnings are based on internal guidance that embassies and consular offices use to decide where it is safe for U.S. diplomats and federal employees to travel, so they often err on the side of caution.

Still, this one, issued Wednesday evening, is sweeping. To begin with, it warns against all but essential travel across most of the states along the U.S.-Mexican border: Tamaulipas, Nuevo Leon (except the city of Monterrey, where caution is advised), Coahuila, Chihuahua and Sonora.

...Ciudad Juarez, in Chihuahua, merits “special concern,” the warning says, advising that the border city “has one of the highest murder rates in Mexico” and that “three persons associated with the Consulate General were murdered in March 2010” there.

Moving south, also on the no-go list for all but essential travel: Sinaloa (except the Pacific Coast resort of Mazatlan), Durango, Zacatecas, Aguascalientes and San Luis Potosi, where two U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents were ambushed and one was killed a year ago.

This means a visitor who wants to drive from the United States to Mexico City has no viable route that would be in accord with the U.S. guidelines.

If you do drive, the warning says, remember: “TCOs [Transnational Criminal Organizations] have erected their own unauthorized checkpoints, and killed or abducted motorists who have failed to stop at them. You should cooperate at all checkpoints.”
The State Department also warns against travel in Jalisco along its borders with Michoacan, another no-go, and Zacatecas.

...Mexico is a country of 110 million people, so the odds of running into trouble are low. The number of U.S. citizens reported to the State Department as murdered in Mexico increased from 35 in 2007 to 120 in 2011.

Where to go? Much of the Yucatan Peninsula is free of murder and mayhem. No advisory is in effect for the states of Chiapas, Tabasco, Campeche, Yucatán and Quintana Roo. Good to go, too, are the popular art and food destinations of Oaxaca and Puebla.

Also on the safe side of the ledger: Mexico City.

As is always the case, the Mexican government termed the warning "ridiculous" and "out of proportion." Interior Minister Alejandro Poire told a press conference yesterday that the warnings "overstate or misstate the standards and security situation that exists in our country." As PolitiFact might say, "Mostly true." But it's Caracas and Venezuela that are really getting the bad rap, though the State Department doesn't even have them on the warning list at all. This stupid video could have been done for almost any city in the world. It's made by idiots for idiots, as you can see:

Dengue Fever-- Something You Don't Want To Bring Back From A Vacation

I didn't buy any souvenirs on my recent trip to the Yucatán. Mostly what they sell visitors to Mérida are hammocks and Guayabera shirts. I took something else home instead-- Dengue fever, an infectious tropical disease transmitted by mosquitoes. It's different from the deadly dengue hemorrhagic fever, which I don't have. The one I have takes a week or two and you're better... or so my doctor says.

I'd like to say I got it traipsing around the jungle investigating the connections between Mormon polygamists and the worship of the Mayan and Aztec feathered serpent deity Quetzalcoatl. The Mormons, who were led to Mexico as a way of preserving their polygamist lifestyle 125 years ago by Mitt Romney's great grandfather, notorious polygamist Miles Park Romney, believe that Jesus Christ came to America after he was resurrected and was remembered by the Mexican Indians as Quetzalcoatl. The second president of the Mormon church, John Taylor, who sent the Romney family down to Mexico wrote, "The story of the life of the Mexican divinity Quetzalcoatl closely resembles that of the Savior; so closely, indeed, that we can come to no other conclusion than that Quetzalcoatl and Christ are the same being." But that isn't how I contracted Dengue fever.

I met plenty of Mormons and plenty of Mayan Indians who the Mormons are trying to convert-- there's a Mormon temple next to all the big intercity bus terminals so that missionaries can prey on the illiterate peasants arriving in the cities for the first time. But the mosquito that got me came from a broken fountain in the beautiful house we rented in downtown Mérida.

When Romney’s father was five years old, the Mexican Revolution broke out and his parents moved back to the United States to avoid the violence. Mitt Romney was eventually born in Michigan. But the other branch of the family-- leading down to Romney's cousins Leighton, Mike and Meredith-- stayed behind in Mexico, their numbers growing. The Romneys chose to remain in Mexico because they established good lives for themselves and their families there.  Most of them are now dual-citizens. 

“We certainly have a love for both countries,” adds Leighton. “I can sing both national anthems and tear up at both of them.  I think that having two countries that you love and two countries that you can serve or be a beneficiary of their service is a great thing.”

The Romneys living in Mexico are well aware of their wealthy and famous relative’s popularity in the Republican primary race. They support their cousin's candidacy and they hope that Mitt will be more open about the issue of his religion and Mexican heritage during the campaign.  It’s a family history they’re proud of, despite the fact that Mitt Romney has never come to visit.

Dengue fever is becoming quite the problem for tourists in tropical countries lately. Popular tourist destinations like Cambodia, Polynesia, Bali and India have had problems recently.

The mosquito menace which has even led to a few deaths has spread its net of fear amongst the monks and tourist visiting Bodhgaya, the important Buddhist pilgrim destination in the state of Bihar.

Bodhgaya is famous for the Mahabodhi Temple and the Bodhi tree in its courtyard under which Lord Buddha attained enlightenment. The Mahabodhi Temple is a World Heritage Site and attracts a large number of Buddhist pilgrims from all over the world.

However the past three months has seen the mosquito menace increase from bad to worse and has resulted in the spread of encephalitis, dengue fever and malaria, which has resulted in quite a number of deaths that have occurred over this period.

As such most devotees, monks and even tourist who come to visit Bodhgaya are virtually caged inside portable mosquito nets even during the day, even blocking their free movement. This has caused a real panic among the visitors who are in constant fear of being bitten by mosquitoes.

"Mosquitoes killed even Alexander the Great, and hence we too are quite frightened," said Madelina Illibery, a tourist from Italy. "I was told encephalitis and malaria together [caused by mosquito bites have claimed many lives in the Gaya district alone in the past few weeks…and hence I too have brought a foldable mosquito net for I can't afford to get exposed to those deadly mosquitoes," she added.

Many of the foreign countries have advised on the need of a mosquito net in their travel advisories. This is so because of the current tourist season which attracts a lot of visitors and also to enjoy a hassle free journey in good health.

My case seems pretty mind... at least so far. Not so for this Australian tourist, Trevor Proudlove, who picked it up in Bali.

He said he knew something was wrong when, after returning home from a 10-day holiday in October, he broke out in a bad rash and was so unwell he was unable to drive.

But Mr Proudlove said it was not until he developed pain in his joints and muscles about a month later that he was diagnosed with the disease, which doctors told him he was genetically susceptible to.

He said he would not travel to Bali again because of the distress it had caused him and his family, despite their efforts to stay safe.

"I couldn't even lift my arm to comb my hair and trying to get on and off chairs caused excruciating pain," he said. "It was like somebody was tearing my muscles out of my legs every time I would get up.

"My feet swelled up to twice the size they normally are, my hands swelled up, too. I couldn't bend my wrists because my joints were so sore. It was horrific."

It's far worse than dealing with proselytizing Mormons. And, yes, you can get it here in the U.S. as well, especially in Florida and Texas.

"We know now that Key West is a high-risk area for dengue and we could have ongoing dengue outbreaks again," said the report's lead author, Carina Blackmore, from the Florida Department of Health. However, if people use air conditioners and screens and stay inside during hot, muggy days there is little chance dengue will become endemic, she said.

Dengue remains a leading cause of illness and death in tropical areas but was largely thought to be absent from the United States since the 1950s.

However, in 2009, 27 people living in Key West came down with illness via locally acquired infections, and then 66 more residents contracted the illness in 2010, the researchers report. The outbreak seems to have eased since then, with no cases reported in 2011.

...Because Key West has a large population of the type of mosquitoes that transmit dengue, called the "house mosquito," Blackmore's team decided to investigate the size of the outbreak there. They identified a number of cases and found that people who got dengue were less likely to use air conditioning, and they often had birdbaths or other types of containers where the mosquitoes could breed.

Blackmore noted that dengue is not transmitted person to person, but from humans to mosquitoes and then back to humans again. However, trying to eradicate house mosquitoes has never been successful, she said, because of where they tend to propagate. "House mosquitoes are lazy mosquitoes-- they breed in [even] very small containers," she said.

UPDATE: How Old Is That Mosquito?

Interesting story on Dengue Fever mosquito research on NPR.

There's a nasty disease called dengue that is just beginning to show up in the United States. It's caused by a virus, and it's transmitted from person to person by a mosquito. A mild case of dengue is no worse than flu. A serious case can mean death.

Michael Riehle at the University of Arizona is trying to solve a curious puzzle about dengue: why there have been dozens of cases in nearby Texas and none, or virtually none, in Arizona. Riehle thinks the answer has to do with Arizona's geography.

"It's right on the edge of the range where these dengue mosquitoes are found," he says. "It's a fairly harsh environment, and we think that they might not be surviving long enough to efficiently transfer the disease to other people."

Eating Healthy In Mérida, Yucatán

Roland had some kind of pork thing

I rented a house in Mérida to kick back and use as a base to explore the interior of the Yucatán Peninsula of southeastern Mexico, the old Mayan Empire-- and to follow up on some leads about Mitt Romney's being a longtime worshipper of Quetzalcoatl, the Aztec and Mayan feathered serpent god that the Mormons believe is the resurrected Jesus Christ. But in between... you gotta eat.

Today when we got back from tracking down an old family of Mormon polygamists near Uxmal-- with Romney connections from when the two families first fled America to live in Mexico in the 1800s so they could keep the polygamy hustle (like they still do in Arizona)-- we ate at a Greek/Italian restaurant in the neighborhood, Rescoldos. Their garden dining immediately transported us to Europe and the food was like nothing we've been eating in Mexico. Michael, who lives in NY and spent last summer in Italy, says his ravioli (stuffed with brie and garlic) was the best ravioli he'd ever tasted anywhere. I had scruptuous vegetarian moussaka that was better than any vegetarian Moussaka I ever found in Greece. Everything was delicious and fresh and very inexpensive. What a place!

Finding good vegetarian food isn't easy in Mérida and I had given up when we found Rescoldos. People here eat pork, lots of it. A the food tends to mostly be fried. Healthy eating doesn't seem to be much of a preoccupation. There's a long-time "vegetarian" restaurant that all the guide books hype, Amaro, just down from the Zocolo in the heart of touristville. It's not bad and there are a few vegetarian dishes (in the broadest sense of the word) but... it's not what I was looking for. Way across town is a franchise place called 100% Natural (near Sam's Club). They have these in Cancun and other Mexican resort towns. It reeks plastic and it's not worth the long bus ride. And we met this guy Pedro who has big dreams and a small new vegetarian placed called 2012 (on Calle 62 right near all the tourist action). It wasn't bad-- but not as good as Pedro's dreams. It was the closest thing to vegetarian though.

Ironically, the organic food you can only buy at a market called Superama here but that we eat in California, mostly comes from Mexico-- but from barren northwest Mexico, Baja California. The NY Times got into it this weekend.

Clamshell containers on supermarket shelves in the United States may depict verdant fields, tangles of vines and ruby red tomatoes. But at this time of year, the tomatoes, peppers and basil certified as organic by the Agriculture Department often hail from the Mexican desert, and are nurtured with intensive irrigation.

Growers here on the Baja Peninsula, the epicenter of Mexico’s thriving new organic export sector, describe their toil amid the cactuses as “planting the beach.”

Del Cabo Cooperative, a supplier here for Trader Joe’s and Fairway, is sending more than seven and a half tons of tomatoes and basil every day to the United States by truck and plane to sate the American demand for organic produce year-round.

But even as more Americans buy foods with the organic label, the products are increasingly removed from the traditional organic ideal: produce that is not only free of chemicals and pesticides but also grown locally on small farms in a way that protects the environment.

The explosive growth in the commercial cultivation of organic tomatoes here, for example, is putting stress on the water table. In some areas, wells have run dry this year, meaning that small subsistence farmers cannot grow crops. And the organic tomatoes end up in an energy-intensive global distribution chain that takes them as far as New York and Dubai, United Arab Emirates, producing significant emissions that contribute to global warming.

From now until spring, farms from Mexico to Chile to Argentina that grow organic food for the United States market are enjoying their busiest season.

“People are now buying from a global commodity market, and they have to be skeptical even when the label says ‘organic’-- that doesn’t tell people all they need to know,” said Frederick L. Kirschenmann, a distinguished fellow at the Leopold Center for Sustainable Agriculture at Iowa State University. He said some large farms that have qualified as organic employed environmentally damaging practices, like planting only one crop, which is bad for soil health, or overtaxing local freshwater supplies.

Many growers and even environmental groups in Mexico defend the export-driven organic farming, even as they acknowledge that more than a third of the aquifers in southern Baja are categorized as overexploited by the Mexican water authority. With sophisticated irrigation systems and shade houses, they say, farmers are becoming more skilled at conserving water. They are focusing new farms in “microclimates” near underexploited aquifers, such as in the shadow of a mountain, said Fernando Frías, a water specialist with the environmental group Pronatura Noroeste.

They also point out that the organic business has transformed what was once a poor area of subsistence farms and where even the low-paying jobs in the tourist hotels and restaurants in nearby Cabo San Lucas have become scarcer during the recession.

To carry the Agriculture Department’s organic label on their produce, farms in the United States and abroad must comply with a long list of standards that prohibit the use of synthetic fertilizers, hormones and pesticides, for example. But the checklist makes few specific demands for what would broadly be called environmental sustainability, even though the 1990 law that created the standards was intended to promote ecological balance and biodiversity as well as soil and water health.

...While the original organic ideal was to eat only local, seasonal produce, shoppers who buy their organics at supermarkets, from Whole Foods to Walmart, expect to find tomatoes in December and are very sensitive to price. Both factors stoke the demand for imports. Few areas in the United States can farm organic produce in the winter without resorting to energy-guzzling hothouses. In addition, American labor costs are high. Day laborers who come to pick tomatoes in this part of Baja make about $10 a day, nearly twice the local minimum wage. Tomato pickers in Florida may earn $80 a day in high season.

What a great big interconnected world. I wonder if President Romney would set up a shrine to Quetzalcoatl in the White House. I hope we never find out. Here's a photo of me at Chichen Itza, a sacred site where the feathered Mayan serpent god was worshipped. And below that is a Mormon picture at Chichen Itza that represents Quetzalcoatal as the resurrected Jesus. Bishop Willard Romney, the same guy who's running for president under the assumed name "Mitt" Romney, teaches this version of... whatever it is.

Side Trip From Merída-- Beautiful Campeche... How Safe?

Lovely Campeche... ready for tourists to start arriving

We picked the Yucatán for our December vacation for a few reasons-- from curiosity about the Mayan culture to the warm weather; it's around 90-something by mid-day, although the early mornings and nights are cool. We rented an indoor-outdoor living house in ancient downtown Merída, the capital of the province. The house is so alluring, whole days pass when no one even thinks about unbolting the big doors and gate and going out. The house is it's own biosphere. And it feels very safe (not counting the damn mosquitos). In fact, we picked the Yucatán because of it's reputation as a safe haven in the never-ending Mexican violence maelstrom. But that was before we read about eleven decapitated bodies found just outside Merída a few years ago.

Yesterday we took an ADO bus-- a nice comfy one-- from Merída to the capital of the next province over Campeche. The city is also Campeche and it's sleepy, charming, a world heritage site and all painted and cobbled and ready to be discovered by tourists. But tourists are mostly afraid of Mexico in general so Campeche, just two and a half hours from Merída, is still sleepy. They don't care; they found oil off the coast. About 200,000 people live in the gem of a baroque colonial city, which was founded in 1540 on top of the ruins of an old Mayan city Canpech. Anyway, back to the bus. It was around $20 each way if I remember correctly and it took about 3 hours to get back because the nice highway stops every now and then for construction and you have to trundle along slowly in one lane-- harder in the dark. And police roadblocks stop you and search the vehicles, ostensibly looking for Guatemalan "illigals" who would like to get jobs in the glittery tourist mecca, Cancún. But Roland told me that Los Zetas, a paramilitary drug cartel, sometimes pull buses over and rob everyone. It made for some excitment every time we got pulled over. But nothing happened. Apparently, Los Zetas-- or some facsimile thereof-- were busy just north of where we were yesterday.

Three U.S. citizens traveling to spend the holidays with their relatives in Mexico were among those killed in a spree of shooting attacks on buses in northern Mexico, authorities from both countries said Friday.

A group of five gunmen attacked three buses in Mexico's Gulf coast state of Veracruz on Thursday, killing a total of seven passengers in what authorities said appeared to be a violent robbery spree.

...Rocha said the other bus passengers killed in the attacks were a young Mexican couple, who left behind a three-month-old baby boy, who survived the attack. A bus driver was also killed.

Five gunmen who allegedly carried out the attacks were later killed by soldiers.
Earlier in their spree, the gunmen shot to death three people and killed a fourth with grenade in the nearby town of El Higo, Veracruz.

On Thursday, the U.S. Consulate General in Matamoros, a Mexican border city north of where the attacks occurred, said in a statement that "several vehicles," including the buses, were attacked, but did not specify what the other vehicles were.

The consulate urged Americans to "exercise caution" when traveling in Veracruz, and "avoid intercity road travel at night."

On the other hand, Merída is nicknamed the city of peace, the real estate market is booming, and the food is yummy, ... but I feel like I should report on that next time.

Mérida-- In The Heartland Of The Mayan People... Or What's Left Of Them

Roland loves Guatemala, especially the people, and he's always pushing that we go down there. We're about the leave for the other half of the Mayan homeland, Mexico's Yucatán Peninsula. We rented a house with our friends Helen and Michael for a few weeks in Mérida, the sleepy, romantic, tropical old colonial capital. I have a very queasy feeling about the Mayan people, primarily because how horrifically they're been treated by my government which-- let's be real-- represents me.

Roland and Helen seem to always feel validated when some NY Times travel writer does a piece on one of our destinations. My response is always "Yecchhhh." These Times travel writers are clueless and always between a year and ten years late to any travel trend. But Helen and Roland both forwarded me the lame, even embarrassing 36 Hours in Mérida story from two weeks ago. Like all their "36 Hours In" stories it's written by an idiot for idiots and is never anything like our own excursions to the same places. If we happen to eat in one of the same restaurants or go to one of the same sites they recommend, it's either a coincidence or despite their recommendation. "Yucatecans," the piece begins, "are fiercely proud of their culture, sprinkling their Spanish with Mayan words and quick to recount the stories of resistance and revolution that set this region apart from the rest of Mexico for centuries." Nothing, though about the exploitation and slaughter of Mayans in our own lifetimes, and not by Spanish conquistadors, but at the direction of our own glorious CIA. More of that below, from a post I ran this weekend at DownWithTyranny. The Times travel section isn't political and they continue that Mérida is "one of the safest in Mexico, is an architectural jewel, and has one of the country’s largest historic centers outside Mexico City. Block after block of houses dating to the mid-19th century and earlier are in the midst of a restoration boom, and the city’s cultural and restaurant scenes are flourishing." We rented a house in the middle of town and all I can think of is resting, relaxing and, at some point, when I'm rested and relaxed-- the weather is balmy and the temperature around 90-- we'll go explore the old Mayan ruins in the vicinity-- on the Mexican side of the border.


It's always very sad to be writing about Guatemala-- sad and, as an American, shameful. What we've done to the people of that country is beyond conceivable and probably damns every single one of us to a special collective circle of hell. Last summer, in the context of our heroic unleashing of the hounds of hell on Libya, we looked at Glen Yeadon's observations of the bloody U.S. intervention in Guatemala in 1953

In 1953 the CIA also intervened in Guatemala, and regarded the action as a success. For what reasons they regarded the operation as success can be only guess at for what followed was a bloody civil war that lasted 36 years. Once again this intervention fits the model perfectly. The legally elected government of Arbenz was reform minded. The center piece of his reforms was land reform. In an overwhelmingly rural nation only 2.2% of the population owned 70% of the land. Prior to the 1944 revolution and ousting of the dictatorship of Ubico, the army was used to rope farm labors together for delivery to low-land farms where they were kept as debt slaves. The expropriation of large uncultivated tracts of land to landless peasants, improvement in the rights of unions and other social reforms were hurting the bottom line of United Fruit. Arbenz even constructed a port on the Atlantic to compete against the port controlled by United Fruit, likewise a public hydro-electric plant was constructed for the same reasons.

The position of United Fruit inside Guatemala was essentially one of a country within a country. United Fruit owned the country's telephone and telegraph systems, administered the country's only Atlantic port, monopolized banana exports and a subsidiary owned the rail system. In the US United Fruit had close ties to the Dulles brothers, various state department officials, congressmen and the US Ambassador to the UN. The former CIA Director, Walter Bedell Smith was seeking an executive position with United Fruit at the same time he was planing the Guatemala coup. He later was named to the board of directors of United Fruit.

The first plan to oust Arbenz was given by Truman as a response to Guatemala receiving arms from Czechoslovakia and the implied communism threat but was canceled. After the election of Eisenhower the plan was put into effect. The Guatemala coup also provides and ideal example of how the CIA manipulates the American opinion. After first being tried in Guatemala this technique has been employed throughout South America. It involves the CIA planting an article in the foreign press the article is then picked up by the news wires and newspapers in other countries. Besides the obvious multiplier effect upon the potential audience it has the appearance of an independent world opinion. Incidentally it was the same tactic that Bush tried to use against Clinton in the 1992 election.

The immediate after effects of the coup was draconian, within four months 72,000 was labeled as communist, many who were tortured and murdered. It is known that the U.S. Ambassador John Peurifoy had a long list of names of leaders that the successor government was to assassinate. Agrarian reform was stopped and the land already expropriated was given back to United Fruit. Union leaders turned up dead. Three quarters of the population was disenfranchised by barring illiterates from the polls and all political parties, unions and peasant organizations were outlawed...

The blood bath and carnage that followed for the next 36 years can only be described as horrific A genocidal war was carried on against the native Indians. Murders, kidnappings and disappearances became widespread and everyday occurrences as right wing death squads roamed the countryside. The report on Guatemala as a first step to reconciliation states that the army is blamed for over 200,000 deaths and disappearances. Below are some extracts from that report:

"Of the 42,000 deaths investigated in the report, the army was found to be responsible for 93 percent. Three percent were the work of the leftist Guatemalan National Revolutionary Unity, and 4 percent were unresolved. The report found that 29,000 of the investigated deaths involved summary executions.

Most of the victims were civilians and Mayan Indians... [T]he government of the United States, through various agencies including the CIA, provided direct and indirect support for some state operations."

It was "clearly genocide and a planned strategy against the civilian population," said Christian Tomuschat, a German citizen who heads the three-member commission. "Government forces... blindly pursued the anti-communist fight, without respecting any legal principle or even the most elemental ethical or religious values."

In 626 massacres, the report found that government forces "completely exterminated Mayan communities, destroyed their dwellings, livestock and crops." The guerrillas were blamed for 32 such massacres, the report said."

Guatemala also provides us with the first example of the right wing death squads that have became so much a part of South American politics. Those death squads and the dictators that employ them are products of the CIA-Military intelligence system of the US. They lead directly to the School of the Americas at Fort Benning, Georgia.

In reading Corey Robin's new book, The Reactionary Mind I came across a review he wrote for the London Review of Books in 2004 of Greg Granlin's Colonial Massacre: Latin America in the Cold War. How could any serious examination of the reactionary mind-- particularly the American reactionary mind-- not deal with the enormity of what was visited (by reactionary minds) on the Mayan native people of Guatemala, the ones whose ancestors had managed to escape being slaughtered in previous centuries by Spanish imperialists? And whose reactionary mind-- albeit an extraordinarily weak one-- would be better to start with than Ronald Reagan's?

On 5 December 1982, Ronald Reagan met the Guatemalan president, Efraín Ríos Montt, in Honduras. It was a useful meeting for Reagan. ‘Well, I learned a lot,’ he told reporters on Air Force One. ‘You’d be surprised. They’re all individual countries.’ It was also a useful meeting for Ríos Montt. Reagan declared him ‘a man of great personal integrity... totally dedicated to democracy’, and claimed that the Guatemalan strongman was getting ‘a bum rap’ from human rights organisations for his military’s campaign against leftist guerrillas. The next day, one of Guatemala’s elite platoons entered a jungle village called Las Dos Erres and killed 162 of its inhabitants, 67 of them children. Soldiers grabbed babies and toddlers by their legs, swung them in the air, and smashed their heads against a wall. Older children and adults were forced to kneel at the edge of a well, where a single blow from a sledgehammer sent them plummeting below. The platoon then raped a selection of women and girls it had saved for last, pummelling their stomachs in order to force the pregnant among them to miscarry. They tossed the women into the well and filled it with dirt, burying an unlucky few alive. The only traces of the bodies later visitors would find were blood on the walls and placentas and umbilical cords on the ground.

Amid the hagiography surrounding Reagan’s death in June, it was probably too much to expect the media to mention his meeting with Ríos Montt. After all, it wasn’t Reykjavik. But Reykjavik’s shadow-- or that cast by Reagan speaking in front of the Berlin Wall-- does not entirely explain the silence about this encounter between presidents. While it’s tempting to ascribe the omission to American amnesia, a more likely cause is the deep misconception about the Cold War under which most Americans labour. To the casual observer, the Cold War was a struggle between the United States and the Soviet Union, fought and won through stylish jousting at Berlin, antiseptic arguments over nuclear stockpiles, and the savvy brinkmanship of American leaders. Latin America seldom figures in popular or even academic discussion of the Cold War, and to the extent that it does, it is Cuba, Chile and Nicaragua rather than Guatemala that earn most of the attention.

But, as Greg Grandin shows in The Last Colonial Massacre, Latin America was as much a battleground of the Cold War as Europe, and Guatemala was its front line. In 1954, the US fought its first major contest against Communism in the Western hemisphere when it overthrew Guatemala’s democratically elected president, Jacobo Arbenz, who had worked closely with the country’s small but influential Communist Party. That coup sent a young Argentinian doctor fleeing to Mexico, where he met Fidel Castro. Five years later, Che Guevara declared that 1954 had taught him the impossibility of peaceful, electoral reform and promised his followers that ‘Cuba will not be Guatemala.’ In 1966, Guatemala was again the pacesetter, this time pioneering the ‘disappearances’ that would come to define the dirty wars of Argentina, Uruguay, Chile and Brazil. In a lightning strike, US-trained security officials captured some thirty leftists, tortured and executed them, and then dropped most of their corpses into the Pacific. Explaining the operation in a classified memo, the CIA wrote: ‘The execution of these persons will not be announced and the Guatemalan government will deny that they were ever taken into custody.’ With the 1996 signing of a peace accord between the Guatemalan military and leftist guerrillas, the Latin American Cold War finally came to an end-- in the same place it had begun-- making Guatemala’s the longest and most lethal of the hemisphere’s civil wars. Some 200,000 men, women and children were dead, virtually all at the hands of the military: more than were killed in Argentina, Uruguay, Chile, Brazil, Nicaragua and El Salvador combined, and roughly the same number as were killed in the Balkans. Because the victims were primarily Mayan Indians, Guatemala today has the only military in Latin America deemed by a UN-sponsored truth commission to have committed acts of genocide.

And one more thing from Corey Robin about what this whole reactionary mind actually wrought for us-- us being Americans... American taxpayers... we, us... you and me. What we defeated in Guatemala and Latin America wasn't "Communism." It was, in Robin's words, "the defeat of a continental social democracy which would allow citizens to exercise a greater share of power-– and to receive a greater share of its benefits-– than historically had been their due... [and] the defeat of that still elusive dream of men and women freeing themselves, thanks to their own reason and willed effort, from the bonds of tradition and oppression." Remember what we saw about the end of serfdom in Russia last week? The U.S. fought hard to preserve that in Guatemala into very recent times.

[I]n Latin America, Grandin shows, it was the left who took up the Enlightenment’s banner, leaving the United States and its allies carrying the black bag of the counter-Enlightenment. More than foisting on the United States the unwanted burden of liberal hypocrisy, the Cold War inspired it to embrace some of the most reactionary ideals and revanchist characters of the 20th century.

According to Grandin, the Latin American left brought liberalism and progress to a land awash in feudalism. Well into the 20th century, he shows, Guatemala’s coffee planters presided over a regime of forced labour that was every bit as medieval as tsarist Russia. Using vagrancy laws and the lure of easy credit, the planters amassed vast estates and a workforce of peasants who essentially belonged to them. Reading like an excerpt from Gogol’s Dead Souls, one advertisement from 1922 announced the sale of ‘5000 acres and many mozos colonos who will travel to work on other plantations’. (Mozos colonos were indebted labourers.) While unionised workers elsewhere were itemising what their employers could and could not ask of them, Guatemala’s peasants were forced to provide a variety of compulsory services, including sex. Two planters in the Alta Verapaz region, cousins from Boston, used their Indian cooks and corn grinders to sire more than a dozen children. ‘They fucked anything that moved,’ a neighbouring planter observed. Though plantations were mini-states-– with private jails, stockades and whipping posts-– planters also depended on the army, judges, mayors and local constables to force workers to submit to their will. Public officials routinely rounded up independent or runaway peasants, shipping them off to plantations or forcing them to build roads. One mayor had local vagrants paint his house. As much as anything Grandin cites, it is this view of political power as a form of private property which confirms his observation that by 1944 ‘only five Latin America countries-– Mexico, Uruguay, Chile, Costa Rica and Colombia-– could nominally call themselves democracies.’

Mexican Gangsters Have A Warning For Bloggers

I was still a teenager when I started traveling abroad. My first trip was a harebrained decision to spend a summer hitchhiking to the North Pole with my lovely Alabama girlfriend Chris. We actually made it as far as Montreal. The next hitchhiking extravaganza was to Mexico City with my most adventurous school buddy, Robert. After all of our possessions were stolen by our host in San Antonio while we looked at the Alamo, we were assaulted by a knife wielding desperado at the Nuevo Laredo foot bridge who got Robert's watch. We still made it all the way to Mexico City!

I hadn't thought about that bridge, or Nuevo Laredo for that matter, in a number of decades... until this week. I just finished all the details of a trip to the Yucatán-- from renting a great house in Mérida to navigating the treacherous waters of airline booking. (I paid $540 directly on the Continental Airlines website after a Continental phone rep assured my-- several times-- that the cheapest tickets were $1,260.) This week something far worse than being robbed at knifepoint happened on that Nuevo Laredo bridge. The last time I wrote about Mexico it was to mention how safe the tourism bureau claims it is:

[W]e acknowledge there are some issues in some pockets, in some specific locations. To give you an example, Mexico has 2,500 counties. Eighty of those have issues. So does that mean that the entire country has issues? Of course not. Eighty of 2,500 is less than 5 percent. Ninety percent of Americans go to six destinations. The tourist destinations are very far from where we have these issues.

...For us in Mexico, when we talk about the U.S., we don’t say the U.S., we say Orlando, L.A., Washington. If something happened last week, if there was a shooting in East L.A., does that mean you can’t go to Washington? Of course not.

Apparently Nuevo Laredo is one of those pockets with issues.

Placards left with the tortured bodies of two people hanging from a Nuevo Laredo overpass warn that the same fate awaits social media devotees who keep information flowing by text, Twitter, blogs and other means as gangsters muzzle the news media in much of Mexico.

"This is going to happen to all the internet busybodies," said one of the notes signed with a Z, presumably for the Zetas gang that controls Nuevo Laredo. "Listen up, I'm on to you."

Many Mexican newspapers and broadcasters have self-censored under constant gangster siege. Reporters have been killed, newsrooms attacked. Government officials often prove less than forthcoming with timely and accurate information. Twitter, Facebook, blogs and text messaging all have filled the void, becoming primary news sources in scores of Mexican communities, even for family members in the U.S., as gangs battle cartel rivals and security forces.

The messages found in Nuevo Laredo on Tuesday, with the bodies of a man and a woman in their 20s, directly threatened two popular blogs that specialize in reporting gang-related violence.

A post on one of those blogs, Al Rojo Vivo, counseled readers on Wednesday, "Don't be afraid to inform ... It's very difficult that they know who is informing. They are only trying to frighten society." The blog is carried by the website of the Monterrey newspaper El Norte.

While valuable to many residents, social networkers also spread rumors that have panicked communities. Prosecutors last month jailed and charged two people [a math teacher and a grandmother] with "terrorism" for tweeting false reports of gangster attacks on schools in the Gulf Coast port of Veracruz.

Social media reports of other gangster attacks emptied the streets of Veracruz's capital, Xalapa, and other towns last weekend. Suggesting that the terrorism charges were overblown, Veracruz Gov. Javier Duarte nevertheless announced Tuesday that he would propose a new state law against "upsetting the public order."

But governments elsewhere have turned to social media in efforts to keep people informed. City officials in Reynosa, on the Rio Grande downriver from Nuevo Laredo, began tweeting several years ago to warn residents of gangster roadblocks and shoot-outs, blandly referring to them as "risky situations."

Early this year, mainstream media executives agreed with federal officials to scale back on coverage of the criminal slaughter that has killed more than 40,000 people in less than five years.

Many newspapers no longer print photographs of murder victims nor report the contents of threats or other messages left with bodies or in public places. Executives reason that publishing specifics-- including the beheading, dismembering or flaying of victims-- only encourages the gangsters and helps them spread their propaganda.

But Blog del Narco, the second site threatened by the Nuevo Laredo messages, religiously carries close-up shots of the carnage, as well as messages left with bodies or elsewhere. Many of the blog's anonymous posts seem likely to have been penned either by the gangsters themselves or investigating police.

The blog Wednesday published the text of a banner draped by a local criminal syndicate in the violent city of Apatzingan, in western Michoacan state. The sign warned residents to avoid Thursday night's public celebrations that kick off Mexico's Independence Day.

"Be alert for possible threats from the Zetas," reads the banner, signed by local gangsters who call themselves the Knights Templar. "Together we can guard our city and our people from persons who only want to cause harm."

Bloggers, of course, aren't the only people who need to be alert in regard to the Zetas. Yesterday they killed the family of a policeman in connection to the deadly fire-- 52 people died-- they had set at a casino in Monterrey August 25. Is Mexico becoming a failed state? Is it already a failed state?

The murder of the family came on a day of violence in and around Monterrey, in which at least 15 people were killed.

Monterrey and the state of Nuevo Leon have seen rising bloodshed as the Zetas and Gulf cartels vie for control of trafficking routes to the US.

The casino attack was one of the deadliest episodes of violence since President Felipe Calderon launched his crackdown on drug gangs in late 2006.

Gunmen burst into the crowded casino in broad daylight and doused it in petrol before setting it alight.

Panic ensued as people rushed for the exit. Many were overcome by smoke as the building was engulfed in flames.

The attack caused outrage in Mexico, a country that has become accustomed to drug-related violence, with around 40,000 killed in less than five years.

Mérida And The Yucatán Peninsula Seem Safe Enough

We love Mexico. I started going when I was a teenager and I've always found the country awesome and inspiring and beautiful. I love the food and the folks have been kind. Mexico City is a terrific, cosmopolitan megapolis, as is Guadalajara and villages I've been to like San Miguel de Allende have been stupendous. Right now Roland, Helen, Michael and I are trying to decide between Mérida on the Yucatán Peninsula or Oaxaca on the other side of the country for a winter getaway. (And, to make it a little more complicated, Roland threw in the picturesque old colonial city of Cuernevaca in the country's heartland.)



We found a beautiful house to rent in Mérida and I'm really leaning that way right now. All the tour books give the place a big thumbs up. It's filled with gardens and plazas that give it a relaxed, tropical atmosphere and it boasts the oldest cathedral on the continent, built between 1561 and 1598, with stone walls from the ruined buildings of Tihó, the former Mayan city. In fact Mérida is right in the middle of the old Mayan Empire and there are ruins to visit all around, including some really close ones like Dzibilchaltún, founded in 500 BC, just 9 miles away. It covers around 6 square miles and since being rediscovered in 1941 something like 8,000 buildings have been mapped. Still close enough for a day trip are the even more outstanding Mayan ruins at Uxmal, Tulum and Chichén Itzá.



Lately there have been safety concerns in Mexico. But not really in the Yucatán. Last month Mexican Tourism Secretary Gloria Guevara was in the U.S. trying to reassure American tourists-- and U.S. visitors make up 60% of Mexico's tourism visitors-- that, despite warnings from the State Department, most of the country is safe.

[W]e acknowledge there are some issues in some pockets, in some specific locations. To give you an example, Mexico has 2,500 counties. Eighty of those have issues. So does that mean that the entire country has issues? Of course not. Eighty of 2,500 is less than 5 percent. Ninety percent of Americans go to six destinations. The tourist destinations are very far from where we have these issues.



...For us in Mexico, when we talk about the U.S., we don’t say the U.S., we say Orlando, L.A., Washington. If something happened last week, if there was a shooting in East L.A., does that mean you can’t go to Washington? Of course not.

Hopefully All The Violence Will Be Over Before We Get To Guadalajara Next Week

Roland and I really do try to avoid violence when we travel. I tend to shy away from places where tourists are being targeted or from places with sustained random violence. But the best laid plans, as they say... We wound up arriving in Egypt in 1997 the day after over 60 tourists were murdered by terrorists in Luxor (which is exactly where we were going). We were practically the only tourists in the country-- and had an amazing time. We were in civil war-torn Sri Lanka a few days after rebels shot and killed dozens of people at a shrine. Roland was fascinated by all the blood still on the stones. Once I stood with my hands over my head surrounded by screaming Afghan militiamen pointing automatic weapons at me for an hour and we've had interesting scrapes with red shirts in Thailand-- a restaurant we always eat in was mortared-- and with pissed off Palestinians on the West Banks, Turkish bomb throwers in Istanbul and anti-royal Maoists in Nepal. "Hey dude, I'm on your side when it comes to monarchies," doesn't cut it.

But this month I was just looking for a restful, no-drama easy trip after the stress of being in Morocco for a month. I picked Flores, an island town on Lago Petén Itzá in northern Guatemala, near the ancient-- and glorious and alluring-- Mayan ruins at Tikal. The airlines make it so inconvenient to get to, with their selfish, money-grubbing hub-cities policies that a trip that should just take a few hours entailed a whole day of inconvenient travel going and coming, eating up a minimum of two full days out of the 5 we had. So we decided on a town with direct flights from L.A. that we've been to before and really love: Guadalajara in Mexico. And much safer than anywhere else in Mexico-- until now. Banditos opened fire in a restaurant today killing half a dozen people, wounding 37-- and just down the street from a hotel we had been considering. Guadalajara is Mexico's second biggest city with almost 4-and-a-half million people. Lately a drug gang turf war has broken out. This is a bummer for Guadalajara since it's supposed to host the Pan American Games in October.

Last week the State Department warned about driving in the western (hipster) part of the city at night.

The U.S. consulate in Guadalajara, Mexico's second-largest city, posted a message on its website Thursday saying that it had prohibited U.S. diplomatic personnel from traveling the highway to the airport at night, and that it "recommends that U.S. citizens consider similar precautions."

On Tuesday, assailants hurled grenades, burned vehicles and blocked several Guadalajara streets and highways in seven near-simultaneous attacks that injured a policeman and two transportation workers. Such tactics have been used by cartels in the past to aid their escapes from police.

The attacks were staged by drug gangs, possibly in retaliation for the arrests of their members, said Fernando Guzman Perez, interior secretary of Jalisco state, where Guadalajara is located.

Tlaquepaque is our favorite part of Guadalajara. I was surprised the guide is wearing a bullet-proof vest in the video:

How I Became Rich The First Time-- And Why The Big Airlines Are All Failing Miserably

On my first day of college-- actually freshman orientation, so even before my first day-- all I wanted was to find someone who would sell me some pot. (This was 1965 so it wasn't as readily available as it has been subsequently.) The beat-types and "heads" were a little closed to rambunctious freshmen wanting to score dope but I noticed that the student body president had long hair and in those days the only males with long hair were drug fiends-- or so I thought; he was the only person with long hair who didn't smoke pot, but it took forever before I figured that out. Anyway, I approached him after his address to the freshmen class. He was eager to find someone with a left-wing perspective to run for freshman class president. I was willing to make believe I knew what a left-wing perspective was if I could get some pot. (He helped me understand the major issues of the day-- from the little thing brewin' up in Vietnam to the stuff Martin Luther King was doing down South-- and he turned me on to rock music, especially the Stones and the Doors-- and helped me become freshman class president, which totally radicalized me. But not pot.)

Ironically, when I finally did score some, he popped up as I was lighting up and was quasi-aghast. It was so hard to get and so expensive-- like $65 an ounce... and what a paranoid hassle. Anyway, eventually I met a real NYC dealer who agreed to sell me awesome California weed for $120 a pound. There are 16 ounces in a pound-- so that was less than $8.00 an ounce. Even if you're not a math major you know that $8.00 is a way better deal than $65.00, right? So what do I do? My grandfather was a Russian democratic-socialist so... I organized a cooperative in which we would all take turns going to the city (90 minutes by train) and scoring and dividing it up and each of us would pay $10 and ounce so the guy who did the work that week would get his free. Everyone loved the idea. I went first. It worked great. But no one wanted to go second. Or third.

So I said I'd do it but I decided to charge $25.00 an ounce, a lot better than $65.00 but still very profitable for moi, although most of the profits went up, so to say, in smoke. In any case, it was just a matter of time before I was the biggest drug dealer in Suffolk County. I learned a lot about business, something that served me well as I eventually started my own business and then ran a corporate one.

Next month I'm going to Mexico for a little vacation. The country's tourism is in the toilet and hotel occupancy rates are way down. Hotels can approach this from a number of directions, none of them ideal from a business perspective. One is to figure that if they can get a customer and charge as much as possible, maybe they can make up for the lack of quantity. Another is to give the customer a great deal in the hope that, a) you'll get some business and, b) others will hear about it and come to your hotel instead of the one charging a lot. The hotel we picked has suites with a rack rate at $950 a night, very high. But the hotel management isn't high and they offer a "discount:" $700 a night. I'm not high either and I'm not shy and was willing to point out that $700 may have been a discount in 2006 but let's be real here, José-- business sucks and you're going to have another empty suite for another week. So we're paying less than $200 a night. Many people are doing this all over Mexico.

Most major airlines have been dealing with the global downturn in other ways. For starters, service has gotten frighteningly bad. In fact, it's at the point that the service is so bad that it kind of makes you want to look for an alternative to taking the trip. David Koenig did a piece about it for A.P. a few days ago.

After a decade of multibillion-dollar losses, U.S. airlines appear to be on course to prosper for years to come for a simple reason: They are flying less.

By grounding planes and eliminating flights, airlines have cut costs and pushed fares higher. As the global economy rebounds, travel demand is rising and planes are as full as they've been in years.

Profit margins at big airlines are the highest in at least a decade, according to the government. The eight largest U.S. airlines are forecast to earn more than $5 billion this year and $5.6 billion in 2012.

U.S. airlines are in the midst of reporting fourth-quarter results that should cap the industry's first moneymaking year since 2007.

"The industry is in the best position-- certainly in a decade-- to post profitability," says Southwest Airlines CEO Gary Kelly. "The industry is much better prepared today than it was a decade ago."

The airlines' turnaround has benefited investors-- the Arca airlines stock index has nearly quadrupled since March 2009-- but it's been tough on travelers.

Fares in the U.S. have risen 14 percent from a year ago, according to travel consultant Bob Harrell. Flights are more crowded than they've been in decades. On domestic flights, fewer than one in five seats are empty. Space is even tighter over the summer and holidays. That's why it took a week to rebook all the travelers who were stranded by a snowstorm that hit the Northeast over Christmas weekend.

Travelers also face fees these days for services that used to be part of the ticket price, such as checking luggage (usually $25 to $35 per bag) and rebooking on a different flight (usually $150 for a domestic flight, more when flying overseas).

"I'm not averse to anyone making money-- that's great-- but (to) take things away and then charge for them, that's not right," said Rick Jellow, an executive who travels in his job for a lighting-systems company in Virginia.

From 2000 through 2009, U.S. airlines lost about $60 billion and eliminated 160,000 jobs, according to an industry trade group, the Air Transport Association.

During that tumultuous decade, airlines were hit with a series of events beyond their control: two recessions; the Sept. 11 attacks; an avian flu outbreak that scared away many travelers, and rising fuel costs.

The industry was profitable in 2000, 2006 and 2007, when the economy was roaring. But those boom years masked the industry's underlying problems, including high costs and more seats than travelers demanded. During 2008 and 2009, airlines lost a combined $23 billion, but they were also attacking their problems, setting the stage for a comeback in 2010.

• They eliminated money-losing flights. When travel demand recovered, airlines could raise ticket prices for the smaller supply of seats.

• They grounded older, gas-guzzling airplanes. The government says the major U.S. airlines, plus freight delivery companies FedEx and UPS, used 11.39 billion gallons of jet fuel in the first nine months of 2010, down 11.4 percent from the same period a year earlier. The price of a gallon of jet fuel jumped 20 percent year over year, but overall fuel spending rose just 6 percent.

• They added fees. In the first nine months of 2010, airlines collected more than $4.3 billion from fees for checking baggage and changing tickets, up 13.5 percent from the comparable period in 2009.

• They consolidated. Delta Air Lines Inc. bought Northwest in 2008, and United and Continental combined last year. That leaves four so-called network carriers that operate from hub airports, down from six. And Southwest Airlines Co.'s pending purchase of AirTran Airways will combine two of the biggest discount carriers. Fewer airlines should mean higher fares.

Delta, Southwest, United Continental and US Airways are expected to have earned nearly $4 billion combined in 2010. The latter two report results on Wednesday. The parent of American Airlines, which suffers from higher costs than the others, said last week it lost $389 million.

The economy is expected to grow faster in 2011 and 2012 than it did in 2010, and this should give the industry a lift. But, there are some challenges on the horizon.

The biggest, is higher fuel prices. With oil hovering around $90 a barrel, jet fuel on the spot market costs about $2.60 a gallon, the highest it's been in more than two years. This will temper industrywide profit margins. Still, Soleil Securities analyst James Higgins says most airlines would make money this year even if oil hits $100.

Another factor that will determine how long the industry's profitability lasts is how individual airlines manage growth. Rightly, the airlines so far have been cautious about adding more flights as travel demand picks up. In the past, they added flights and brought back grounded aircraft too quickly. That led to a glut of seats and falling airfares.

"The wild card is always capacity discipline," says William Swelbar, a director at Hawaiian Airlines' parent and an airline industry researcher at MIT. "All it takes is one carrier to begin to add capacity aggressively, and then we follow and we undo all the good work that's been done."

Yes, capacity discipline... it's always been what makes the capitalist world go round. I know there are some very inexpensive rooms available in Cairo right now. But I bet you can't get a cheap flight.

How Does Political Unrest Impact Tourism?

2010 was a good year for tourism worldwide, with much of the uptick in Asia. According to a new report from the United Nations World Tourism Organization, 2010 saw 935 million people traveling (both for business and leisure) internationally, up 6.7% over 2009, but only 2% above the pre-recession levels of 2008. Obviously, it's a sign of the rebounding economy. Europe's tourist industry-- like it's economy-- was sluggish (up 3%), despite political stability. North America, where the dollar is still cheap, saw a healthy increase (8%), even if tourists are being advised to stay away from dangerous parts of the country like Arizona. The report attributed a slowdown in tourism in Mexico to the impact of swine flu, rather than drug-violence and out-of-control corruption.

Last week, we looked at the deteriorating tourist situation in Tunisia, with tourists being evacuated and flights being canceled because of the political situation there. Today, with reports that the once much feared Tunisian police have been joining the protestors in Tunis, the tourism industry is still uncertain about which way things are going to go for that country's tourist industry. At first a country that markets itself as a comfy, apolitical Mediterranean beach resort saw only cancellations and heard the giant sucking sound of a crucial foreign currency provider going down the drain. Optimists-- like Tunisia's ambassador to Spain-- see the successful revolt as an eventual boost for tourism there.

"Tourists were a bit worried," Ambassador Mohamed Ridha Kechrid conceded in an interview on the opening day of the five-day international tourism trade fair, Fitur, in Madrid.

"Now order has been re-established and from now on tourists can come back to Tunisia," he said.

"There was a crisis of confidence, which is bad for everyone, for Tunisians, for foreign investors and of course for tourists," he added.

But once democratic elections have been organized "Tunisia will be even more beautiful, more credible... and this change will be beneficial for Tunisian tourism and for the economy."

And the UN World Tourism Organisation's Secretary General Taleb Rifai says the industry there should recovery quickly.

Rifai noted that tourists left "in a speedy and regular manner," but many said they would return once the situation returns to normal.

"The history, the infrastructure and the stakeholders in Tunisia are entrenched enough to be able to recover rather quickly," he said.

"Of course, how quick this would be is very much dependent on the political developments that are unfolding," he said, noting that a new government is to be announced and new elections held.

"As far as tourism is concerned, we think that in the medium term, not the long term, Tunisia will come back to what it was."

It certainly has come back strong in Thailand since the collapse of the tourist industry there in 2008-'09. Less than a year ago we were reporting how the tourist industry was still falling apart in the face of continuing political turmoil. This year tourist arrivals were up by 10.8%!

Overall, arrivals in the first nine months of the year grew by 13.3% y-o-y, an impressive recovery from the 5.0% fall in arrivals experienced in 2009.

It is a positive sign that Thailand’s tourist industry has recovered so strongly from the 2008-2009 downturn and is testament Thailand’s ongoing attractiveness as a tourist destination, despite the sporadic outbreaks of social unrest. Much of this unrest has been concentrated around Bangkok, with the coastal tourist areas largely unaffected. As such, we expect tourist arrivals will have continued to pick up, with the high season around Christmas providing a good end to the year.

In a few weeks Roland and I are going down to Mexico for a few days and we decided to spend the time in one of our favorite cities there, Guadalajara. I haven't seen any reports of violence there but the prices were unbelievably low. Airfairs were cheap and hotel rates were phenomenal. The rack rate for the place we stayed last time is around $900/night for a suite. We only the most modest bargaining, we booked it for less than $200/night this time! That's the other side of the impact of violence on tourism, which is still disastrous in Mexico

Mexico’s drug wars lead the week’s financial news again as the city’s wealthiest city, Monterrey, was hit by a spate of 23 killings along with one woman dying of a heart attack upon witnessing a massacre in the city.

Home to some of Mexico-- and the United States’ biggest companies, including Cemex (CX) and General Electric (GE), Monterrey’s income is double the national average. The state of Nuevo Leon, of which Monterrey is the capital, however, has seen at least 60 killings in 2011 alone.

The violence is not confined to drug cartels and that is what is worrying business leaders. A US company executive was abducted, beaten and robbed of his armored car earlier this year while both Fitch and Standard & Poor’s both downgraded the country’s credit rating at the end of 2009, citing drug violence.

Not-so Accidental Tourists: While cities such as Juárez and Tijuana on the northern border are used to the violence, Monterrey and Oaxaca-- which saw the third Mexican mayor killed in just the first two weeks of 2011-- are slowly becoming accustomed to it, pushing out business and tourism.

Evidence of this was news that three cruise lines, Royal Caribbean Cruises, Norwegian Cruise Lines and Carnival Corp, announced they would be ending or at least scaling back trips to Mexico from California. While none of their destinations have been affected by the drug violence, customers, they claim, aren't distinguishing between regions of Mexico and are put off the country as a whole by news of violence.

While international tourism may be dropping, there are signs that domestic tourism, or at least travel, is on the up, with the news that InterJet, a low-cost domestic carrier, signed a contract to buy 20 Sukhoi-SuperJet aeroplanes for $650m. The first deliveries are scheduled for the second half of 2012. Flights on the new planes are likely to cover Toluca to Aguascalientes, San Luis Potosi and Querétaro.

Still a problem in Madagascar though-- where only a third of tourists expected are visiting the country and where a new problem is looming for tourism: Somali pirates expanding their operations south!




UPDATE: Egypt

Tourism, which brings in aover $10 billion annually, accounts for almost 12% of Egypt's gross domestic product and directly accounts for close to one in 8 jobs. Roland and I had just arrived in Egypt in 1997 on the day after over 50 tourists were butchered in Luxor. The country emptied out of tourists and we had the whole place to ourselves. It was totally awesome for us-- problematic for the Egyptians. Right now the Egyptian tourist authorities are trying to put on a brave face and claiming most tourists go to the Red Sea resorts and that everything is hunky dory there. This sounds like bullshit and tomorrow is likely to be the biggest day of protests yet-- both bloody and possibly leading the inevitable collapse of the dictatorship. This is the most recent (Thursday) update from the State Department:

This security notice is being issued to update the U.S. citizen community in Egypt about reports that anti-government demonstrations are expected to continue through the weekend. Since the Police Day protests on January 25, there have been daily demonstrations in several areas of Cairo as well as other cities in Egypt. There have been violent clashes that have resulted in injuries and deaths among both civilian demonstrators and police forces. Several websites are posting calls for demonstrations to take place after Friday prayers on January 28. Areas where people congregate after Friday prayers should be avoided. 

While many of the demonstrations have focused on the downtown Cairo/Tahrir Square area, violent confrontations have occurred at other locations both in the Cairo metropolitan area and in Alexandria, Suez, and other cities. Traffic and the Metro system have experienced serious disruptions. Local authorities have announced that the planned demonstrations are illegal and that police will take appropriate action to prevent unauthorized gatherings. 

The Embassy urges American citizens to review their personal plans and remain alert to their surroundings at all times. Americans should avoid areas of planned demonstrations and be aware that spontaneous demonstrations can occur anywhere on short notice. If caught unexpectedly near a demonstration, Americans should obey instructions from police and leave the area as quickly as possible. Americans resident in Egypt should monitor local news broadcasts and American visitors should ask tour guides and hotel officials about any planned demonstrations in the locations they plan to visit. Americans should carry identification and a cell phone which works in Egypt. 

Although the State Department has issued recent-- meaning 2011-- travel alerts for Haiti, Tunisia, the Central African Republic, Niger, Nepal, and Sudan, there hasn't been one issued for Egypt yet.

There seems to be a conspiracy to downplay the seriousness of what's happening-- full on regime change-- in Egypt. Today demonstrations have spread to Giza and Luxor, the two top tourist sites in the country. But tourists are getting no warnings that would jeopardize the tourism industry. It's actually shocking. But pictures like this are starting to get out now and... well, no one wants to get caught in this kind of a traffic jam:



Even with a human chain encircling the Egyptian Museum to prevent looting and with tanks in the streets of Cairo (and several other cities), the tourist industry still has its collective heads in the sand and is basically saying, "everything is pretty normal for a nice swim in the Red Sea. The shark is dead. Come on in!" On the other hand, EgyptAir has stopped all flights out of Cairo.

Egypt's national carrier on Friday temporarily suspended its flights from the capital, while international airlines scrambled to readjust their schedules to accommodate a government-imposed curfew as mounting street protests presented President Hosni Mubarak's government with its most serious challenge ever.

Separately, the United States warned its citizens against any nonessential travel to Egypt and cautioned Americans already in the country to stay put. The warning came hours after Friday's anti-government protests spiraled out of control, forcing the deployment of the military which Egyptian state television said would work alongside the police to enforce the 6 p.m. to 7 a.m. curfew and restore order.

...An official at Cairo's international airport said some foreign airlines had canceled or rerouted flights slated to arrive Friday night, including Air France. The official spoke on condition of anonymity to avoid breaching instructions about contacting the media.

Air France said its once-daily flight to Cairo was rerouted to Beirut and would continue to Cairo on Saturday morning. The airline said its Saturday flight was canceled while the airline tried to amend its schedule.

And after protests erupted at virtually every tourist site in Egypt, the U.S. and Britain warned tourists away.

"If you are already in Egypt, you are strongly advised to stay put," it said. "We are not, at present, advising British nationals to leave the country."

Foreign Secretary William Hague said the safety of British nationals was "absolutely paramount".

"In light of the ongoing demonstrations in Egypt we have carefully reviewed our advice and now advise against all but essential travel to Cairo, Alexandria, Luxor and Suez.

"This does not affect transits through Cairo airport for onward travel to other destinations, and it does not cover Egypt's Red Sea resorts."

...Abta, the organisation formerly known as the Association of British Travel Agents, said it had not heard of any reports of British package tourists being affected by the unrest but said some tour operators had cancelled trips as a precaution.

Travel firm Thomas Cook said it had cancelled all excursions to Cairo this weekend from the Red Sea resorts. But it said flights were operating in and out of Sharm El Sheikh airport as normal this weekend.

British Airways has warned of changes to flight schedules to Cairo because of a curfew imposed in the capital.

Meanwhile the Egyptian Museum has been partially looted. Photos:

http://yfrog.com/hsu6aezj
http://yfrog.com/h0arrqj
http://yfrog.com/h8ijfrj
http://yfrog.com/h067787496j

Tourist agencies in the West conspired with the Egyptian Tourist industry to downplay the dangers in that country. And the US State Department and British Foreign Office both went along-- seemingly more concerned with the Egyptian tourist industry than with the safety of their own nationals. And today tourists are desperate to get out of Cairo-- and can't. Western governments are finally starting to warn their nationals.

Hundreds of people crowded the capital's main international airport hoping for a flight out on Saturday but Western carriers were canceling, delaying or suspending service after days of violent unrest.

A British airline turned around its Cairo-bound jet in mid-flight.

Between 1,500 and 2,000 people flocked to Cairo Intentional Airport, many without reservations.
Officials said that about half were tourists and half Egyptians.

British Midlands International said its flight from London Heathrow to Cairo turned around because a shift in the start of a nighttime curfew from 6 p.m. to 4 p.m. had made it impossible to land in time for passengers to make it out of the airport.

Lufthansa and Delta have both canceled their Egyptian flights. And the U.S. State Department has done an about face, going from trying to reassure nervous tourists that it was perfectly safe to travel to Egypt-- and not upset the fragile economy-- to preparing to airlift all Americans out of the country!

he American Embassy in Cairo said Sunday it is making arrangements to begin flying Americans out of Egypt on Monday, as an outbreak of mass looting added new dangers to a nation rocked by protests seeking an end to President Hosni Mubarak's rule.

The U.S. government warned that Americans should consider leaving Egypt as soon as possible as residents of Cairo were taking steps to protect themselves against the spreading lawlessness.

Mubarak thugs are trying to incite civil war and mayhem by unleashing a wave of domestic terror against the Egyptian people, including the looting and home break-ins. It is the last gasp of a crumbling tyranny.

And I bet British tourists, who were fed the same line of malarkey by their Foreign Office-- again, putting the Egyptian economy's well-being ahead of their own citizens' safety-- are pissed off as they struggle to get out while they can.

Desperate holidaymakers, heeding Foreign Office advice to leave Egypt, found flights grounded as staff abandoned their posts to join in the national protests.

Passengers who risked venturing out of their hotels to travel to the airport found scenes of complete chaos with queues of several hours snaking around the terminal buildings.

Unable to leave due to the night-time curfew, many were forced to bed down in the departure lounges.

Those stranded said the entire airport had ran out of food and water adding to the misery.

I hope Egyptians are kinder to the Bits than Brits were to travelers who were stranded in their country over the December storms when every conceivable strategy to fleece trapped passengers was carried out to the max.

Mexicana Airlines Ceases Operations

When Mexicana Airlines went bankrupt in the beginning of the month, most people thought they would, give up some routes, make some cutbacks and do some deals and be right back in business. Today they halted all flights. It was Mexico's biggest airline and the country's first-- third oldest in the world operating under the same name (after KLM and Quantas) and operated both domestically and internationally. It was the biggest foreign carrier, passengerwise, using LAX. With 110 aircraft and more than 11 million passengers annually, it accounted for close to a third of all domestic passengers in Mexico, primarily by ramping up operations at its 2 discount subsidiaries, Click and Link (both of which also ceased operations).

Last week an investor's group, Tenedora K bought 95% of the business, the pilots unions owning the rest. The Chapter 15 bankruptcy petition, which lists more than $500 million in assets and $1 billion in debt, bars U.S. creditors from seizing planes or canceling contracts. The airline is expected to restructure and start up operations again but no one is saying when. Meanwhile, Aeromexico, Interjet, Volaris and American Airlines are offering to accommodate stranded fliers. The investment group has been trying to squeeze more concessions out of the airlines' unions.

I fly a lot-- and on a lot of airlines a lot funkier than Mexicana. Sometimes Roland has to drug himself to get on puddlejumpers that fly domestically in places like Mali, India, Thailand and Egypt. So when we read last week that American Airlines isn't maintaining their planes properly, we let out a collective gulp. That's been a long time fear of ours-- corporate owners cutting back on resources for proper maintenance. And now the FAA is fining American for "$24.2 million for failing to adequately address a problem with wheel-well wiring that could cause fires in its fleet of 245 McDonnell Douglas MD-80 airplanes."

That comes right on top of the Justice Department signing off on a monopolistic merger between United and Continental that will create the world's largest airline-- and offer passengers ever fewer choices in the skies.

The airlines serve a combined 144 million passengers per year, flying to 370 destinations.

Critics of the merger between United and Continental have included Rep. James Oberstar (D., Minn.), the chairman of the House Transportation Committee.

During a hearing in June, Oberstar objected strongly to the proposed deal, arguing that continued consolidation in the airline industry will lead to "little choice for passengers, little choice for cities, little choice for competition."

"The Justice Department ought to turn it down," Oberstar said of the United-Continental bid to merge, adding, "The moment this thing is approved, I will draft and introduce legislation to reestablish market regulation by the government of airlines."

I wonder when the airlines really will start charging to use on flight toilets. They've certainly turning everything else they do into ways to rip off their passengers.