Is Egypt Ready For A Primetime Tourism Redebut?

Roland and I had such a beautiful house picked out to rent in Damascus's old city, Beit al Kamar. I hope it's still standing. I doubt we'll ever see it-- and I'm happy the owners are living in Nashville. But, right now I would say Syria, Yemen, Iraq and Afghanistan are probably not places you should consider going on vacation-- not unless your idea of a vacation includes gunfights and staying out of the way of Predator drones and chemical weapons attacks. But what about Egypt? Is it time to start thinking about a nice holiday along the Nile? Most travel agents will say no. CNN says no, Condé Nast says no and the international tourism industry says Egypt's tourist sector is on the verge of collapse.

“Four million Egyptians are employed in the tourism sector, millions of families live off of this, the bread to feed their children is at risk,” said Egypt’s Minister of Tourism, Hisham Zaazou, addressing around 30 Italian journalists hosted in Sharm El Sheikh, (to witness and report that it is a safe place for tourists) as he struggles to convince the Italian and European governments to reconsider their travel advice.

"We are appalled at the position of the European governments that do not recommend travel to Egypt,” the Minister said. “We are moving full steam ahead towards democracy. Riots in Cairo are in decline; we are a people who love peace. The decision of the EU to limit the financial aid only to the economic and social sectors does not help foreign visitors to come to us.

Now even Roland has given up advocating that we go to Damascus or Yemen. But he's gotten it into his head that now would be the right time for another vacation in Egypt. He has a feeling there are lots of good deals now and that the main sites won't be as crowded. Remember two things, last time we visited the Pyramids, Zahi Hawass himself closed the whole thing down so we could tour the Great Pyramid all by ourselves while hundreds of Belgians and Italians sweltered on line in the sun. And, last time we were there, the country nearly emptied out of tourists because a bunch of scimitar-wielding religious fanatics slaughtered, beheaded and disemboweled 60 or so foreign tourists at the Temple of Hatshepsut across the Nile from Luxor. We had a huge cruise ship to ourselves (plus a couple of elderly Brits returning to London after a life in Oman). So, we really did get to see everything there was to see without any annoying crowds of tourists to spoil it. I say, let's not push our luck. Roland insisted I read this account which, makes revisiting Egypt now sound attractive... at least to him. (Apparently Chinese tourists, who we noticed are starting to dominate Europe, are also dominating Egypt. The travel in huge groups and hold everything up at every conceivable bottle neck.

The lone tourist bus curved through the desert past the limestone-topped Pyramid of Khafre, leaving the camel handlers and postcard sellers trudging through its dust. It rounded one last turn, then settled atop a plateau overlooking the pyramid and its two mammoth siblings.

The bus door flapped open, unleashing a dozen Chinese tourists into the empty parking lot. They strolled toward the plateau's edge, cameras and parasols in hand, just ahead of the vendors scrambling at the prospect of a few paying customers. For a moment, the scene was perfect-- the solitary caravan approaching from the desert, the heat shimmering off the stone blocks, the majestic desolation.

It helped that we were mostly alone that hot, late-August morning in the heart of one of the world's best-known tourist destinations. I was in town to help cover the troubles that had seized Egypt over the past two months and had found a calm morning to make it out to the Cairo suburbs, where the pyramids mark the start of the vast brown desert. I didn't expect to find the usual crowds there, but still the emptiness and quiet were a surprise. Closer to the pyramids, the crowds weren't much thicker: a British family, a scattering of Arab couples, Somali women posing for pictures in flowing headscarves, everyone easy and unhurried.

Years ago, before the 2011 revolution that started Egypt's political roller coaster, visiting the pyramids could quickly become a two-hour flight through clouds of tour groups. Visitors, guides and vendors jostled in front of the ancient marvels, as a steady line of buses emerged from the brown blocks of the city.

Now, after a summer of coup, protests and massacres, the flocks have flown to other spots, abandoning such draws as the Egyptian Museum, the ancient ruins of Luxor farther down the Nile and, of course, the pyramids of Giza. In mid-August, arrivals at Egyptian airports dropped by more than 40 percent after the military brutally cleared two sit-in camps protesting the July ouster of President Mohammed Morsi, of the Muslim Brotherhood.

That has devastated the country's all-important tourism industry, which makes up more than a tenth of all economic activity. But it's proved a boon for travelers willing to defy official warnings from the U.S. and other countries against coming to Egypt.

Hotel and restaurant prices have dropped, sometimes by half, as has the Egyptian pound, making the already affordable country even more so. Once at the sights, travelers find themselves usually alone with some of the world's greatest treasures, be they gold death masks of pharaohs or the sublime centuries-old mosques soaring above old Cairo. Tourist sites have become forlorn, even serene-- more befitting these dignified survivors of the millennia.

Australian Mary Hill said she had been traveling across Europe with a friend over this summer and hadn't kept up on the news from Egypt. However, they had already booked a visit, and were set on going, even after they heard about the bloodshed.

"We were at a stage in our trip where we had to take a chance," Hill said as she stepped out of the child pharaoh Tutankhamen's exhibit at the Egyptian Museum. "And in the end, it's been positive."

"From the country's perspective, of course, it's not good."

The dearth of business has driven already predatory vendors and guides into a frenzy, with the U.S. Embassy in Egypt even issuing an alert in June about "over-aggressive vendors." Visitors had come across "angry groups of individuals surrounding and pounding on the vehicles," the embassy reported, "and in some cases attempting to open the vehicle's doors."

On my pyramid trip, one young guide jumped onto the back of our car and clung to the rear window, while our driver abruptly braked and zoomed ahead and wove from lane to lane to try to shake him off. Only a block later did the driver convince the guide's friends to keep the young man off the bumper.

Then came the vendors inside the pyramid complex, who tried out their usual pitches before moving onto more desperate Plan Bs.

"There's no business here, there are no more tourists," one camel rider said, the ache in his voice sounding genuine. "I have a family. We need to eat."

In the winding alleys of the Khan el-Khalili bazaar in old Cairo, merchants tried to physically stop what rare visitors they spotted walking through as they hocked limestone miniature pyramids and bright cotton fabrics.

Shop owner Mohamed Hafez said his sales had fallen by "100 percent" since Egyptians first took to the streets 2 1/2 years ago.

"There used to be a lot of tourists, a lot of nationalities," Hafez said, while cooling down in the air-conditioned inner sanctum of his souvenir shop. "Now, it's nothing. We just want safety, no more revolutions."

Wooing back those visitors has become a top priority, even with all the military vehicles and checkpoints in the streets. Dallas-based college student Deniz Mustafa had, in fact, flown into Cairo as part of a volunteer project inviting youth from around the world to visit and tout Egypt's top tourist sites.

Two weeks after his arrival in July, however, Morsi was violently removed, and the volunteer project was cancelled. Mustafa responded by hitting the road and seeing Egypt, flying down to Luxor and up to the Red Sea resort of Dahab, where empty restaurants were offering 50 percent discounts on entire menus.

Mustafa and a fellow volunteer from China had since moved onto the Egyptian Museum, where they were studying the ancient granite statues of Egyptian nobles and the small wooden ships buried with pharaohs.

"Any time you go to a temple or climb Mount Sinai, you have a more personal experience now," Mustafa said. "It's just you and the tour guide up there."

That peace was without a doubt a fragile one. The city still goes dead every Friday afternoon in anticipation of Muslim Brotherhood protests that can turn violent in an instant. Nighttime curfews were also in effect while I was there, effectively shutting down Cairo's buzzing nightlife.

Everyone was nervously waiting for the Brotherhood's response to the repression and expecting the worst. On one night in the bar of my hotel, the pops of explosions outside immediately silenced all conversation, as we wondered whether the violence was indeed back. A quick check out on the street confirmed they had only been fireworks.

For visitors, it all made for a rare glimpse into a proud country trying to figure out its future and also a chance to see Egypt free of many of the usual hassles. The dangers were real but mostly manageable.

The threat of a U.S. strike on Syria, however, made some Americans nervous about revealing their nationality. And if the political troubles flare up again in Egypt, even the bravest traveler will have to think twice about coming.

Finally, Today The State Department Warned Travelers Away From Egypt

The State Department is very cautious about harming the tourism business of allies and client states and for the entire week-- with dozens killed, including an American student-- the State Department didn't issue a warning about Egypt, despite the turmoil. But tourism is a gigantic part of the economy and warning away tourists is almost like declaring economic warfare. Some say that Morsi fell because Egyptian tourism was down by about 25% this year. But today, the State Department did warn tourists to find another destination instead of Egypt.

Egypt
July 3, 2013

The U.S. Department of State warns U.S. citizens to defer travel to Egypt and U.S. citizens living in Egypt to depart at this time because of the continuing political and social unrest. This Travel Warning supersedes the Travel Warning issued on June 28, 2013.

On July 3, 2013, the Department of State ordered the departure of non-emergency U.S. government personnel and family members from Egypt due to the ongoing political and social unrest.

Political unrest, which intensified prior to the constitutional referendum in December 2012 and the anniversary in 2013 of Egypt's 25th January Revolution, is likely to worsen in the near future due to unrest focused on the first anniversary of the President’s assumption of office. Demonstrations have, on occasion, degenerated into violent clashes between police and protesters, and between protesters supporting different factions, resulting in deaths, injuries, and extensive property damage. Participants have thrown rocks and Molotov cocktails and security forces have used tear gas and other crowd control measures against demonstrators. There are numerous reports of the use of firearms as well. While violent protests have occurred in major metropolitan areas, including downtown Cairo, Alexandria, and Port Said, the security situation in most tourist centers, including Luxor, Aswan, and Red Sea resorts such as Sharm el Sheikh, continues to be calm. Of specific concern is a rise in gender-based violence in and around protest areas where women have been the specific targets of sexual assault.

On June 28, a U.S. citizen was killed during a demonstration in Alexandria. On May 9, a private U.S. citizen was attacked with a knife outside of the U.S. Embassy after being asked whether he was an American. Additionally, Westerners and U.S. citizens have occasionally been caught in the middle of clashes and demonstrations. U.S. citizens are urged to remain alert to local security developments and to be vigilant regarding their personal security by knowing the locations of police and fire stations, hospitals, and the U.S. Embassy.

If you wish to depart Egypt, you should make plans and depart as soon as possible. The airport is open and commercial flights are still operating, although cancellations may occur. Travelers should check with their airlines prior to their planned travel to verify the flight schedule. There are no plans for charter flights or other U.S. government-sponsored evacuations. U.S. citizens seeking to depart Egypt are responsible for making their own travel arrangements.

The U.S. Department of State strongly urges U.S. citizens to avoid all demonstrations in Egypt, as even peaceful ones can quickly become violent, and a foreigner could become a target of harassment or worse. Because of the proximity of the U.S. Embassy to Tahrir Square in Cairo, the U.S. Embassy has sometimes been closed to the public on short notice due to violent protests. The Embassy will notify U.S. citizens as quickly as possible of any closing and the types of emergency consular services that will be available. Should security forces block off the area around the U.S. Embassy during demonstrations, U.S. citizens should contact the American Citizens Services section before attempting to come to the U.S. Embassy during that time. U.S. citizens are urged to remain alert to local security developments and to carry identification and, if moving about alone, a cell phone or other means of communication that works in Egypt.

Were You Thinking About A Trip To Luxor In Egypt?

Egypt is one of the world's original tourist destinations. People have been traveling there to see the wonders-- whether built by man or alien-- since the beginning of recorded time. Roland and I decided to spend a month there just after Thanksgiving, 1997. Egypt is usually overrun with tourists from around the world. But the month we were there, we basically had Egypt to ourselves (not counting the Egyptians). Luxor (ancient Thebes), with the Valley of the Kings, the Valley of the Queens and the Temple of Karnak, were especially empty. That's because just as we were leaving L.A. in November, a bunch of religionist fanatics slaughtered a busload of tourists from Switzerland or Austria and Japan. It was really a spectacular horror show with scimitar-wielding terrorists chasing unarmed tourists through the ruins and mercilessly slashing them to death. It was a bloody slaughter; 5 dozen were murdered. All the tourists left Egypt just as we were arriving. And they stopped coming (at for a couple weeks). I feel terrible for the Austrians and Japanese, of course; I mean what a way to go! But... well, Roland and I pretty much had Egypt to ourselves. I mean it was just us and the Egyptians, who, except for the scimitar-wielders, are an extremely generous, friendly and gracious people.

As for modern Luxor, the prosperity and the economy is almost entirely based on the steady influx of tourists from around the world. So when President Mohammed Morsi appointed a new governor of Luxor who was connected to the scimitar-wielding Gamaa Islamiya terrorists, the people of Luxor freaked out. The Minister of Tourism, Hisham Zaazou, resigned, saying the appointment would have "dire consequences" for tourism in Egypt. The new governor, Adel al-Khayat, is best known in Luxor as a member of Gamaa Islamiya, a group remembered for devastating the city's economy for several years. Demonstrations haven't been as reported on as the ones in Turkey and Brazil, but they were big and they were getting out of hand all last week. Some started calling for Morsi himself to step down.

Yesterday, there was some confusion over whether the new governor would step down or not. Rumors that Morsi had told him to forget the whole deal were denied on Saturday.

Khayyat told Turkish news agency Anadolu that he is not thinking about resigning, although he is currently in his hometown of Suhag, awaiting the outcome of recent events. “There will be no resignation Insha'Allah (God willing),” Khayyat said.

Senior figures from the group’s political arm, the Construction and Development Party, told the London based pan-Arab daily newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat earlier Saturday that Khayyat had resigned over mass protests demanding his ouster.

“Al-Khayat resigned so that people could realize that we are not interested in the job and are not clinging to it,” Construction and Development Party head Nasr Abdel Salam reportedly said.

...The governor failed to reach his office on Wednesday as angry protesters blocked the road to the governorate building, setting tires on fire. Residents, tourism sector employees, and secularist groups have all joined the demonstration.

Khayyat had postponed starting his work to “ensure everyone's safety,” according to Abdel Salam, and in fear of clashes between his opponents and supporters, after the latter have had to form a human shield around him to protect him.

But today he made it official; he resigned "to prevent bloodshed."

"I discussed with my brothers from the Construction and Development party, and we agreed that I should present my resignation as Luxor's governor because we don't want bloodshed," he said in a statement. "We cannot accept the shedding of even one drop of blood for a position that we never wanted."

El-Khayat was one of the 17 provincial governors appointed last week by Islamist President Mohammed Morsi. His appointment steered anger among tourism workers and activists in Luxor and hundreds of people have protested Morsi's choice outside the governor's office.

El-Khayat's party calls for strict implementation of Islamic Shariah law, which includes imposing an Islamic dress code for women, banning alcohol, and preventing the mixing of the sexes. Workers in a city as heavily dependent on tourism as Luxor worried that such policies would further hurt their business.

Officials of the Construction and Development party said on Sunday that el-Khayat's resignation decision was not made under pressure and that it showed the party's political maturity.

The party has in recent weeks emerged as a strong backer of Morsi against the opposition, which plans massive protests on June 30 to force him out of office. Leaders of the group have declared the protesters non-believers and have vowed to "smash" them on June 30, the first anniversary of Morsi's assumption of office as the nation's first freely elected leader.

UPDATE: I Hope You're Not In Egypt Today... Totally Unsafe

An American student was killed this weekend and millions of Egyptians have taken to the streets to try to oust Mohamed Mursi and the Muslim Brotherhood, who have been overplaying their hand. This isn't just in Cairo's Tahrir Square. This is everywhere.

At least four people have been killed and nearly 200 wounded in clashes between supporters and opponents of Egypt's Islamist President Mohamed Mursi, security and medical sources say.

All four dead were shot in Nile Valley towns south of Cairo, one in Beni Suef and three in Assiut. Across the country, the Health Ministry said, 174 people were given medical treatment as a result of factional fighting in the streets.

In Cairo and Alexandria, more than one million took to the streets on the first anniversary of Mursi's inauguration to demand that he resign.

Waving national flags and chanting "Get out!", a crowd of more than 200,000 had massed by sunset on Cairo's central Tahrir Square in the biggest demonstration since the 2011 uprising that overthrew Mursi's predecessor, Hosni Mubarak.

"The people want the fall of the regime!" they shouted, echoing the Arab Spring rallying cry that brought down Mubarak-- this time yelling it not against an ageing dictator but against the first elected leader in Egypt's 5000 year recorded history.

Many bellowed their anger at Mursi's Muslim Brotherhood, accused of hijacking the revolution and using electoral victories to monopolise power and push through Islamic law.

Others have been alienated by a deepening economic crisis and worsening personal security, aggravated by a political deadlock over which Mursi has presided.

As the working day ended and 38 Celsius heat eased, more protesters converged through the eerily deserted streets of the shuttered city centre, while smaller crowds protested in several other areas of the capital.

The veteran leaders of Egypt's secular, liberal and left-wing opposition, including former chief of the UN nuclear watchdog Mohamed ElBaradei and leftist presidential candidate Hamdeen Sabahi, joined protest marches in Cairo.

A Reuters journalist said hundreds of thousands of anti-government protesters marched through the Mediterranean port of Alexandria, Egypt's second city, and a military source reported protests in at least 20 towns around the country.

The are rumors that Morsi has fled from Cairo-- on the one year anniversary of his election victory. You don't want to be walking around in this:

Egyptian Tourist Industry Still In A State Of Collapse-- A Matter of Safety

People have been visiting Egypt since before records were kept. But with all my traveling all over the world, I didn't make it there until 1991 or something like that. It's not really on the way anyplace. It's its own destination-- and a worthwhile one for sure, obviously. The food's nothing to write home about, unfortunately, but the history, the culture, the people and the sites... all make it more than worth the time and effort. But U.S. tourists have almost completely stopped going there now. It's just considered too unsafe by most American tourists and travel agents. In 2005, Egypt had around 5.5 million foreign tourists. By 2008 that had jumped to 12.8 million, bringing in around $11 billion and employing approximately 12% of the country's workforce. It peaked at 14.7 million tourists in 2010 (with $12.5 billion in revenue). It's been seriously downhill in the last couple of years.

And that's not because some sharks off Sharm el-Sheikh developed a fondness for Germans, Russians and Ukrainians. Wrecking the country's tourism industry hasn't been a goal of sharks; it has been a goal of revolutionaries. The 2013 Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Report was another bad blow to Egypt's tourist sector. It ranks 85th in the world, between Colombia and the Dominican Republic, not as highly recommended as trouble spots like Sri Lanka, India, Israel, Lebanon, Mexico and Azerbaijan... but still a better bet than places with open warfare, like Mali, Syria, Yemen, Burundi and Pakistan. A consideration that hurt Egypt was the safety and security category which looks at "the costliness of common crime and violence as well as terrorism" and considers road the prevalence of road accidents and the reliability of police.

It is perhaps little wonder that tourists are spooked — amid ongoing political unrest, Molotov cocktails, gunfire and tear gas have become almost commonplace in some areas.

Two years after the revolution that toppled President Hosni Mubarak, protesters still return to Cairo’s Tahrir Square-- where it all began-- to demonstrate against the Islamist President Mohamed Morsi and lament the country’s failing economy.

Earlier this month, Bedouin gunmen kidnapped a British couple who were on their way to the glittering beaches of Sharm El Sheikh. They were quickly released, but Bedouins have taken other hostages and also attacked police stations and blocked access to towns to show their discontent with what they see as their poor treatment by Cairo.

Last month, thugs attacked and entered the InterContinental hotel in Cairo, forcing it to close down while it implemented heightened security measures.

...Emile Asaad, manager of an American Express travel agency in the ancient city of Luxor, home to King Tut's tomb and the famous temples of Luxor and Karnak, said that “the important thing is that when people need to walk in the street they want to feel safe."

"We have over 400 boats on the Nile, there is still 20 to 25 percent occupancy on some of the most popular boats, but others are just sitting and not operating," he said. "We don't know how the future looks."

...[T]ravel companies said many people were staying away.

Bob Atkinson, a travel expert with the U.K.-based price-comparison website TravelSupermarket.com, said unrest in Egypt had "seriously affected the tourist trade."

"The Arab uprisings very much put the Egypt market into a tailspin," he said. Flavia Jaber, owner of Toronto-based company Road to Travel, which includes Road to Egypt, said that "our business to Egypt is dead in the water at the moment."

"People are not going to Egypt right now, at least not from North America," she said.

I've told the story many times how Roland and I arrived in Egypt a day after a massacre of tourists near Luxor. The whole country emptied out of tourists. We had the whole place to ourselves. It was just "too dangerous." We literally shared a gigantic Nile luxury liner with 2 other people-- instead of 200. It was one of the best trips we had ever taken-- and it wouldn't have been if it was packed with tourists. And we never felt unsafe anywhere for one second. Is it more dangerous than Manhattan? I'm not sure-- but I would take the same precautions... and Egypt is a lot less expensive. It's the fourth cheapest tourist destination in the world. Everything is a bargain... as long as you're not in the wrong place at the wrong time.

Tourism In The Middle East And Magreb? Barely A Pulse

Arizona tourism went into the crapper as soon as violent extremists started running around the state with hate messages and unrestricted guns. Even Frommer warned the state is too dangerous to visit. I know Wisconsin is a popular tourist destination year round and I'm not sure if the right-wing turmoil in Madison is having any impact on the state's tourist industry-- not to mention the fried cheese curd and bratwurst makers. But some of the other areas where people are fighting for the human rights and dignity-- like Libya, Bahrain and Tunisia-- the tourist industry is dead in the water. Wikipedia's Libya Travel site starts with an ominous-looking warning sign: "WARNING: As of February 2011, Libya is in a severe state of political and civil crisis. Military, police and security forces are using deadly force in attempts to quell civil unrest in many parts of the country. Reports have emerged of thousands of people having been killed or seriously injured. If you are already in Libya, stay away from large public gatherings and try to gain independent and reliable information about the political and civil situation in your area. Try to organize a secure exit from Libya by contacting your country's embassy or their representatives either in Libya, your home country or neighbouring nations. The governments of many nations have issued formal travel warnings, research these warnings in depth before travelling to or moving about within Libya. Many nations have also recommended their citizens in Libya should leave the country immediately and some have managed to arrange evacuation flights or other means of travel. The situation is highly volatile, care and elevated situational awareness must be exercised at all times if attempting to move about or transit through effected areas of Libya." Not very alluring-- and a disaster for the country's small but developing tourist industry.

Morocco's tourist industry is far more developed-- and a crucial part of the country's economy. Tourism is way down as Europeans-- forget Americans-- wonder if the country is safe or likely to be the scene of violent protests like the rest of the Maghreb.

As the Egyptian and Tunisian destinations were collapsing, travel agents all over Europe were offering Morocco and the Canary Islands as alternatives for cancelled trips.

In Germany, Europe's greatest market, travel agents in late January and early February openly campaigned for Morocco as the safe and quiet alternative to Tunisia and Egypt in local media. Similar campaigns were registered in the UK, Scandinavia and France.

Consequently, flights to Morocco from Europe over the last few weeks have been fuller than ever during a low season. Morocco today published record arrivals for January, and the growing Moroccan tourism industry was making important extra revenues.

But these short heydays are now over. Each and every day, international media are overflowing with reports from the protest wave spreading to new countries. There is a widespread impression it is only a question of time for unrest and revolution to reach Morocco.

An American tourist spends something like 8 times what other tourists spend... and Americans have been the first to cancel their trips to anyplace remotely dangerous-sounding. Even now, with Europeans beginning to trickle back into Egypt, Americans are booking trips to Hawaii, Las Vegas and Bermuda instead.

Egypt earns upwards of $13 billion a year from its tourism industry -- an integral part of the nation's struggling economy.

But Masood Ahmed, director of the International Monetary Fund's Middle East and Central Asia Department, told a press conference last week the decline in tourism was likely to seriously hurt Egypt.

"The recent popular protests in Egypt will definitely have a short-term economic cost," Ahmed said. "We will see tourism and investment going down, and certainly the 5.5% growth rate that we saw in the last two quarters of 2010 will likely be considerably lower in the next six months."

And that decline in tourism isn't likely to change anytime soon. The U.S. State Department is still warning Americans to stay away from Egypt for "non-essential travel."

"Due to continuing uncertainties regarding the restructuring of Egyptian government institutions, the security situation remains unresolved," the department said in a travel warning posted on its website. "Until the redeployment of Egyptian civilian police is fully restored, police response to emergency requests for assistance or reports of crime may be delayed."

The U.S. government has also ordered the departure of all nonemergency personnel from Egypt. Cairo is one of the largest duty stations in the world, with thousands of U.S. employees administering economic and military aid.

But British Prime Minister David Cameron visited Egypt this week-- and his government is allowing British tourists to return to Sharm el-Sheik and the Red Sea resorts. So has Germany's government.

Today's NY Times puts on a brighter face, pointing out that Tahrir Square has become a new tourist destination.

Many tourist sites in and around Cairo are open again-- from the pyramids to the Khan el-Khalili souk to the Egyptian Antiquities Museum. But these days the most sought-after photo is not one of Tutankhamen’s mask but of Tahrir (Liberation) Square, a mammoth traffic circle the world had stared at for three weeks on television. Named after Egypt’s 1919 liberation from the British, Tahrir Square is a top destination for many of the Western tourists who have begun trickling into Egypt in recent days.

“It is amazing what has happened here,” said Aart Blijdorp, a 60-year-old civil servant from the Netherlands. He had flown in a few days earlier to attend the seven-day anniversary of Mr. Mubarak’s resignation, a gathering on Tahrir Square that the protesters hope will become a weekly Friday event to remind the current military government of their continuing demands for reform. “The optimism in the air was so apparent on the news, I had to come feel it for myself,” Mr. Blijdorp said, after introducing me to two young protesters he had met in the square. They had become Mr. Blijdorp’s tour guides around Cairo.

“We have been taking him around because he is traveling on his own,” said Omar Ahmed, 23, a civil engineer, adding that they were off to the Citadel, but that Mr. Blijdorp wanted to come back to Tahrir Square first.

“The good news is he is seeing everything fast, because no one is here,” said Hamdy Mohammed, 24, a law student. “But we want tourists to come back because it is a new Egypt now.”

“So far, Tahrir is my favorite place,” said Mr. Blijdorp, who had visited the Pyramids the day before.

The allure of visiting Egypt at this moment hasn’t been lost on some tour operators. For example, Akorn Destination Management (akorndmc.com), which bills itself as an organization that delivers “inspirational travel experiences,” is offering “Tahrir Square-- Egypt Is Making History,” a trip that includes a Nile cruise, a walk through Tahrir Square and a stay at the Semiramis InterContinental Hotel, which is near the square.

As Rick Zeolla, the general manager of the Cairo Marriott, where Christiane Amanpour and many other journalists stayed, put it: “Right now Egypt is like having a fast pass at Disney. People should come over.”

Amr Badr, managing director of Abercrombie & Kent in Egypt and the Middle East, believes now is a unique time to visit Egypt and see history in the making. “I think people will immediately feel the energy,” he said, noting that the streets are now cleaner than they have been in recent memory, and that Tahrir Square has become a “living exhibit-- a sort of Speaker’s Corner” in Egypt that they plan to promote. Egyptians, he added, are feeling a newly found sense of pride in their country. “If Egypt was good before, it will be better now,” he said.

Michael Koth, general manager of the Semiramis InterContinental, said his clients are no longer asking for a “Nile view” room but a Tahrir view. “The early guests we are seeing are more independent, well seasoned and globally focused travelers,” Mr. Koth said.

Mali was probably more "dangerous" when nothing was especially going on, politically speaking. Here below is a photo I took of Roland on rue Guide Mouamar El Kaddafi in Timbuktu. Last week we were in Guadalajara, right after a terrorist attack that left nearly 50 people dead or wounded. Everyone we knew told us not to go. Yet the place seemed safer than New York or L.A.-- and the prices were down and the crowds much smaller, making everything easier. We love Guadalajara anyway, but it was even better with all the wooses scared off. Nothing would get me to Libya 'til the Qaddafis are dead-- which could be weeks away-- but we're already thinking about a trip there soon. Arizona... not so much.

Whither The Egyptian Tourist Industry?

The #1 concern among one subset of Americans in regard to the revolution against brutal, grinding dehumanizing tyranny in Egypt has nothing to do with Egypt's 80,000,000 mostly impoverished people, It's all about Israel. Well, relax... Mohamed ElBaradei was on Meet the Press today and he vows that the peace treaty is rock solid. And then there's the tourism-- which accounts for at least 7% of Egypt's GDP. Americans didn't get as crazy about Mubarak thugs riding through Tahrir Square killing peaceful protesters as they did about Mubarak thugs breaking into the Egyptian Museum on the same square breaking some artifacts. "People can be replaced," one American told me. These treasures can't." I wanted to vomit.

The Egyptian economy is incredibly bound up with tourism-- and the balmy winter is the high season. In a country with rampant, systemic unemployment, one job in 8 is a tourist industry job. Since the protests began, a million tourists have left the country and Egypt has lost at least a billion dollars in evaporated tourist revenues. That's massive. I was shocked that until there was actual blood flowing in the streets both the U.S. State Department and its British counterpart were working to bolster Egypt's economy by falsely claiming tourism was perfectly normal and non-problematic. In a matter of one day, they went from "Everything's wonderful; have a good time and be careful of sunburn" to "Get to the airport for an emergency flight out immediately." I was shocked that both the U.S. and British governments would put Egypt's tourist industry ahead of the safety of their own citizens.

Today's L.A. Times reports that despite the catastrophic effect of the drop off in tourist revenues "some Egyptians whose livelihoods depend on the tourist trade are sympathetic to the protesters' cause."

In the fragrant confines of the California Perfumes Palace, within view of the Giza pyramids, Ahmed Ali uncorked his scented wares-- "Try the Cleopatra oil!"-- and talked of the need for change.

"It's bad for us," he said of the tumult. "But it's a happy time for the people. In the end, Egypt will be a stronger country, a better country."

Egypt's vice president, Omar Suleiman, told state television last week that the ongoing unrest had cost Egypt $1 billion in tourism revenue. Some analysts thought that estimate was a conservative one.

The State Department advised U.S. citizens to avoid travel to Egypt and to leave as soon as they could do so safely. Over the last six days, about 2,300 Americans have crowded aboard evacuation flights organized by the U.S. Embassy in Cairo. Commercial flights, which were disrupted at the height of the turmoil, are flying in nearly empty and flying out full.

In some parts of the country, the events unfolding violently in the capital seem a world away, and tourist operators would like their clientele to think of them that way.

At one hotel in the Red Sea resort of Sharm el Sheikh, guests noticed that a few days into the protests, a big flat-screen television disappeared from a coffee nook just off the opulent lobby. Waiters explained it was broken.

The tourist economy has bounced back from hard times before. In 1997, Islamist gunmen massacred dozens of foreign tourists in Luxor, causing an initially dramatic drop-off in visitor traffic, but the industry eventually recovered. In April 2005, a suicide bomber struck near a souk in Cairo popular with visitors from abroad, killing three foreign tourists.

This morning the Associated Press chronicled the crumbling state of Egyptian tourism over the past 12 days, pointing out that major carriers like Delta and even EgyptAir have stop flying between the U.S. and Cairo and that travelers have been canceling their plans en masse.

Travelers faced the same question as Rob Solow, who is booked on an Egyptian getaway this month with his wife. “Is it going to be an issue where we are going to have to watch our backs the whole time?”

The Yorktown Heights, N.Y., couple aren't sure if they'll make the trip. But Solow said he won't be going to the Middle East in the future: “I just think it's a troubled part of the world that's not necessary to visit.”

The timing of the violence and political uncertainty couldn't be worse-- winter is the high season for visitors. Large tour operators such as Gate 1 Travel and cruise companies including Norwegian Cruise Line have canceled Egyptian stops. Tours elsewhere in the Middle East haven't been canceled, but travel agents are getting a steady stream of inquiries about the status of trips.

“The ones who haven't booked are holding off and the ones who have are trying to get out of it,” says Blake Fleetwood, owner of several Cook Travel businesses in New York.

...Jordanian economist Hani Horani said: “Foreign tourists look at the Middle East as one entity and they will avoid traveling to an area they consider unstable.”

One view is that Egyptian tourism-- which probably started a couple hundred years before Christ when Greek travelers made their way to ancient monuments-- has an uncertain future. Another view takes the exact opposite view-- that this is a good time to go to Egypt-- or at least certain parts of it. In 1997 Roland and I arrived in Cairo the day after dozens of Swiss, Japanese and other tourists were hunted down and massacred by extremists inside the Temple of Hatshepsut at Deir el-Bahri right across the Nile from Luxor, the second most important tourist area after the Pyramids and Sphinx complex at Giza. We pretty much had the whole tourist infrastructure to ourselves and it was awesome. But now, all the important historical and cultural sites are shuttered. If you like surf and sun and cheap, gaudy hotels in a cultural wilderness, though...

Contrary to popular belief, tourism is not dead in all of Egypt. The situation in the popular Red Sea destinations of Sharm el Sheikh, Hurghada, Taba, and Marsa Alam remains “safe” with hotels operating “business as usual” according to Thomson Travels.

Although the British Foreign Office has advised its nationals against all but essential travel to Cairo, Alexandria, Suez and Luxor, British tour operators offered a string of promotions this week on holidays in Egypt's Red Sea resorts which remain popular with holidaymakers despite unrest elsewhere in the country stressing that they are far from the main flashpoints.

Thomas Cook has a one-week holiday in an all-inclusive, four-star Sharm el-Sheikh hotel at £319. First Choice is offering a two-week holiday in the resort from £359 flying from London. Thomson has flights seats at £79 on a one-way flight from Edinburgh to Sharm el-Sheikh, and return flights from Manchester at £159 leaving Wednesday for 10 days in the resort. Other return flights from Britain to Red Sea destinations were priced at £149 with some flights nearly full.

The two biggest tour operators in Britain, Thomas Cook and TUI Travel, which runs Thomson and First Choice, offered several deals to the Red Sea. A spokeswoman for TUI Travel said that Sharm el-Sheikh "operates like a country in itself," run separately from the rest of Egypt, with one main road in and low unemployment due to the tourism industry. TUI Travel also said that there had been no incidents related to the uprising in the Red Sea resorts, where it was "business as usual."

"The atmosphere is quiet and calm, with Sharm el-Sheikh's main resort of Naama Bay bustling as people continue to enjoy their holidays as normal," the spokeswoman said. “The curfew is only imposed in Cairo, Alexandria and Suez. It is not being enforced in any Red Sea resort to which we operate. Booking conditions to Sharm el Sheikh, Marsa Alam, Taba and Hurgharda remain as normal”-- in other words, if you cancel your trip, you will lose most or all of your money. Thomas Cook is taking the same line, saying “no tourist areas at the Red Sea have been affected in any way by the recent demonstrations.

I wouldn't trust any of this as far as I could throw it. Of course, there is another reason some intrepid travels might want to go to Egypt now-- to witness the rebirth of a great nation as it struggles for its dignity and for its future generations against the forces of tyranny. You can't order one of those packages up at Thomas Cook everyday.




UPDATE: OK, Mubarak's Gone, Now What?

Egypt is bracing for a cratering economy but one tour operator, probably an optimist, said he expects "a return to normalcy by the end of the month." Others say March and some say April... or October.

Earlier this week, the Associated Press reported monuments and museums around Cairo were deserted. The Pyramids of Giza reopened to tourists on Wednesday after a 12-day closure, but few people came to visit.

The Egyptian Museum in Cairo-- next to Tahrir Square in Cairo, where many of the most heated political protests have taken place-- remained shuttered, though officials vowed to reopen "after the strike is finished."

Egypt relies heavily on the tourism industry. Last year, the country had 14.7 million visitors, who generated $11 billion in revenue, according to the Egyptian Tourist Authority in New York. That number is about 11 percent of the total gross domestic product for the country.

Before Mubarak's resignation, tourism officials had predicted a quick turn around once the political turmoil quiets down.

"Looking back to previous crises that hit this industry in the last decade, one can tell that the current crisis, despite all its negative effects on our business, will be and should be the fastest to fade and the least harmful of all," says ElSayed Khalifa, consul-director of the ETA in New York.

Mohamed Kamel, chief executive officer of the Red Sea resort builder Egyptian Resorts Co., told Bloomberg he was optimistic that tourism in Egypt would rebound quickly.

"People are now looking at Egypt as a more competitive destination because of the exchange rate," Kamel tells Bloomberg. "And during crises, more concessions are made to tourists to get business jumpstarted."

How I Became Rich The First Time-- And Why The Big Airlines Are All Failing Miserably

On my first day of college-- actually freshman orientation, so even before my first day-- all I wanted was to find someone who would sell me some pot. (This was 1965 so it wasn't as readily available as it has been subsequently.) The beat-types and "heads" were a little closed to rambunctious freshmen wanting to score dope but I noticed that the student body president had long hair and in those days the only males with long hair were drug fiends-- or so I thought; he was the only person with long hair who didn't smoke pot, but it took forever before I figured that out. Anyway, I approached him after his address to the freshmen class. He was eager to find someone with a left-wing perspective to run for freshman class president. I was willing to make believe I knew what a left-wing perspective was if I could get some pot. (He helped me understand the major issues of the day-- from the little thing brewin' up in Vietnam to the stuff Martin Luther King was doing down South-- and he turned me on to rock music, especially the Stones and the Doors-- and helped me become freshman class president, which totally radicalized me. But not pot.)

Ironically, when I finally did score some, he popped up as I was lighting up and was quasi-aghast. It was so hard to get and so expensive-- like $65 an ounce... and what a paranoid hassle. Anyway, eventually I met a real NYC dealer who agreed to sell me awesome California weed for $120 a pound. There are 16 ounces in a pound-- so that was less than $8.00 an ounce. Even if you're not a math major you know that $8.00 is a way better deal than $65.00, right? So what do I do? My grandfather was a Russian democratic-socialist so... I organized a cooperative in which we would all take turns going to the city (90 minutes by train) and scoring and dividing it up and each of us would pay $10 and ounce so the guy who did the work that week would get his free. Everyone loved the idea. I went first. It worked great. But no one wanted to go second. Or third.

So I said I'd do it but I decided to charge $25.00 an ounce, a lot better than $65.00 but still very profitable for moi, although most of the profits went up, so to say, in smoke. In any case, it was just a matter of time before I was the biggest drug dealer in Suffolk County. I learned a lot about business, something that served me well as I eventually started my own business and then ran a corporate one.

Next month I'm going to Mexico for a little vacation. The country's tourism is in the toilet and hotel occupancy rates are way down. Hotels can approach this from a number of directions, none of them ideal from a business perspective. One is to figure that if they can get a customer and charge as much as possible, maybe they can make up for the lack of quantity. Another is to give the customer a great deal in the hope that, a) you'll get some business and, b) others will hear about it and come to your hotel instead of the one charging a lot. The hotel we picked has suites with a rack rate at $950 a night, very high. But the hotel management isn't high and they offer a "discount:" $700 a night. I'm not high either and I'm not shy and was willing to point out that $700 may have been a discount in 2006 but let's be real here, José-- business sucks and you're going to have another empty suite for another week. So we're paying less than $200 a night. Many people are doing this all over Mexico.

Most major airlines have been dealing with the global downturn in other ways. For starters, service has gotten frighteningly bad. In fact, it's at the point that the service is so bad that it kind of makes you want to look for an alternative to taking the trip. David Koenig did a piece about it for A.P. a few days ago.

After a decade of multibillion-dollar losses, U.S. airlines appear to be on course to prosper for years to come for a simple reason: They are flying less.

By grounding planes and eliminating flights, airlines have cut costs and pushed fares higher. As the global economy rebounds, travel demand is rising and planes are as full as they've been in years.

Profit margins at big airlines are the highest in at least a decade, according to the government. The eight largest U.S. airlines are forecast to earn more than $5 billion this year and $5.6 billion in 2012.

U.S. airlines are in the midst of reporting fourth-quarter results that should cap the industry's first moneymaking year since 2007.

"The industry is in the best position-- certainly in a decade-- to post profitability," says Southwest Airlines CEO Gary Kelly. "The industry is much better prepared today than it was a decade ago."

The airlines' turnaround has benefited investors-- the Arca airlines stock index has nearly quadrupled since March 2009-- but it's been tough on travelers.

Fares in the U.S. have risen 14 percent from a year ago, according to travel consultant Bob Harrell. Flights are more crowded than they've been in decades. On domestic flights, fewer than one in five seats are empty. Space is even tighter over the summer and holidays. That's why it took a week to rebook all the travelers who were stranded by a snowstorm that hit the Northeast over Christmas weekend.

Travelers also face fees these days for services that used to be part of the ticket price, such as checking luggage (usually $25 to $35 per bag) and rebooking on a different flight (usually $150 for a domestic flight, more when flying overseas).

"I'm not averse to anyone making money-- that's great-- but (to) take things away and then charge for them, that's not right," said Rick Jellow, an executive who travels in his job for a lighting-systems company in Virginia.

From 2000 through 2009, U.S. airlines lost about $60 billion and eliminated 160,000 jobs, according to an industry trade group, the Air Transport Association.

During that tumultuous decade, airlines were hit with a series of events beyond their control: two recessions; the Sept. 11 attacks; an avian flu outbreak that scared away many travelers, and rising fuel costs.

The industry was profitable in 2000, 2006 and 2007, when the economy was roaring. But those boom years masked the industry's underlying problems, including high costs and more seats than travelers demanded. During 2008 and 2009, airlines lost a combined $23 billion, but they were also attacking their problems, setting the stage for a comeback in 2010.

• They eliminated money-losing flights. When travel demand recovered, airlines could raise ticket prices for the smaller supply of seats.

• They grounded older, gas-guzzling airplanes. The government says the major U.S. airlines, plus freight delivery companies FedEx and UPS, used 11.39 billion gallons of jet fuel in the first nine months of 2010, down 11.4 percent from the same period a year earlier. The price of a gallon of jet fuel jumped 20 percent year over year, but overall fuel spending rose just 6 percent.

• They added fees. In the first nine months of 2010, airlines collected more than $4.3 billion from fees for checking baggage and changing tickets, up 13.5 percent from the comparable period in 2009.

• They consolidated. Delta Air Lines Inc. bought Northwest in 2008, and United and Continental combined last year. That leaves four so-called network carriers that operate from hub airports, down from six. And Southwest Airlines Co.'s pending purchase of AirTran Airways will combine two of the biggest discount carriers. Fewer airlines should mean higher fares.

Delta, Southwest, United Continental and US Airways are expected to have earned nearly $4 billion combined in 2010. The latter two report results on Wednesday. The parent of American Airlines, which suffers from higher costs than the others, said last week it lost $389 million.

The economy is expected to grow faster in 2011 and 2012 than it did in 2010, and this should give the industry a lift. But, there are some challenges on the horizon.

The biggest, is higher fuel prices. With oil hovering around $90 a barrel, jet fuel on the spot market costs about $2.60 a gallon, the highest it's been in more than two years. This will temper industrywide profit margins. Still, Soleil Securities analyst James Higgins says most airlines would make money this year even if oil hits $100.

Another factor that will determine how long the industry's profitability lasts is how individual airlines manage growth. Rightly, the airlines so far have been cautious about adding more flights as travel demand picks up. In the past, they added flights and brought back grounded aircraft too quickly. That led to a glut of seats and falling airfares.

"The wild card is always capacity discipline," says William Swelbar, a director at Hawaiian Airlines' parent and an airline industry researcher at MIT. "All it takes is one carrier to begin to add capacity aggressively, and then we follow and we undo all the good work that's been done."

Yes, capacity discipline... it's always been what makes the capitalist world go round. I know there are some very inexpensive rooms available in Cairo right now. But I bet you can't get a cheap flight.

How Does Political Unrest Impact Tourism?

2010 was a good year for tourism worldwide, with much of the uptick in Asia. According to a new report from the United Nations World Tourism Organization, 2010 saw 935 million people traveling (both for business and leisure) internationally, up 6.7% over 2009, but only 2% above the pre-recession levels of 2008. Obviously, it's a sign of the rebounding economy. Europe's tourist industry-- like it's economy-- was sluggish (up 3%), despite political stability. North America, where the dollar is still cheap, saw a healthy increase (8%), even if tourists are being advised to stay away from dangerous parts of the country like Arizona. The report attributed a slowdown in tourism in Mexico to the impact of swine flu, rather than drug-violence and out-of-control corruption.

Last week, we looked at the deteriorating tourist situation in Tunisia, with tourists being evacuated and flights being canceled because of the political situation there. Today, with reports that the once much feared Tunisian police have been joining the protestors in Tunis, the tourism industry is still uncertain about which way things are going to go for that country's tourist industry. At first a country that markets itself as a comfy, apolitical Mediterranean beach resort saw only cancellations and heard the giant sucking sound of a crucial foreign currency provider going down the drain. Optimists-- like Tunisia's ambassador to Spain-- see the successful revolt as an eventual boost for tourism there.

"Tourists were a bit worried," Ambassador Mohamed Ridha Kechrid conceded in an interview on the opening day of the five-day international tourism trade fair, Fitur, in Madrid.

"Now order has been re-established and from now on tourists can come back to Tunisia," he said.

"There was a crisis of confidence, which is bad for everyone, for Tunisians, for foreign investors and of course for tourists," he added.

But once democratic elections have been organized "Tunisia will be even more beautiful, more credible... and this change will be beneficial for Tunisian tourism and for the economy."

And the UN World Tourism Organisation's Secretary General Taleb Rifai says the industry there should recovery quickly.

Rifai noted that tourists left "in a speedy and regular manner," but many said they would return once the situation returns to normal.

"The history, the infrastructure and the stakeholders in Tunisia are entrenched enough to be able to recover rather quickly," he said.

"Of course, how quick this would be is very much dependent on the political developments that are unfolding," he said, noting that a new government is to be announced and new elections held.

"As far as tourism is concerned, we think that in the medium term, not the long term, Tunisia will come back to what it was."

It certainly has come back strong in Thailand since the collapse of the tourist industry there in 2008-'09. Less than a year ago we were reporting how the tourist industry was still falling apart in the face of continuing political turmoil. This year tourist arrivals were up by 10.8%!

Overall, arrivals in the first nine months of the year grew by 13.3% y-o-y, an impressive recovery from the 5.0% fall in arrivals experienced in 2009.

It is a positive sign that Thailand’s tourist industry has recovered so strongly from the 2008-2009 downturn and is testament Thailand’s ongoing attractiveness as a tourist destination, despite the sporadic outbreaks of social unrest. Much of this unrest has been concentrated around Bangkok, with the coastal tourist areas largely unaffected. As such, we expect tourist arrivals will have continued to pick up, with the high season around Christmas providing a good end to the year.

In a few weeks Roland and I are going down to Mexico for a few days and we decided to spend the time in one of our favorite cities there, Guadalajara. I haven't seen any reports of violence there but the prices were unbelievably low. Airfairs were cheap and hotel rates were phenomenal. The rack rate for the place we stayed last time is around $900/night for a suite. We only the most modest bargaining, we booked it for less than $200/night this time! That's the other side of the impact of violence on tourism, which is still disastrous in Mexico

Mexico’s drug wars lead the week’s financial news again as the city’s wealthiest city, Monterrey, was hit by a spate of 23 killings along with one woman dying of a heart attack upon witnessing a massacre in the city.

Home to some of Mexico-- and the United States’ biggest companies, including Cemex (CX) and General Electric (GE), Monterrey’s income is double the national average. The state of Nuevo Leon, of which Monterrey is the capital, however, has seen at least 60 killings in 2011 alone.

The violence is not confined to drug cartels and that is what is worrying business leaders. A US company executive was abducted, beaten and robbed of his armored car earlier this year while both Fitch and Standard & Poor’s both downgraded the country’s credit rating at the end of 2009, citing drug violence.

Not-so Accidental Tourists: While cities such as Juárez and Tijuana on the northern border are used to the violence, Monterrey and Oaxaca-- which saw the third Mexican mayor killed in just the first two weeks of 2011-- are slowly becoming accustomed to it, pushing out business and tourism.

Evidence of this was news that three cruise lines, Royal Caribbean Cruises, Norwegian Cruise Lines and Carnival Corp, announced they would be ending or at least scaling back trips to Mexico from California. While none of their destinations have been affected by the drug violence, customers, they claim, aren't distinguishing between regions of Mexico and are put off the country as a whole by news of violence.

While international tourism may be dropping, there are signs that domestic tourism, or at least travel, is on the up, with the news that InterJet, a low-cost domestic carrier, signed a contract to buy 20 Sukhoi-SuperJet aeroplanes for $650m. The first deliveries are scheduled for the second half of 2012. Flights on the new planes are likely to cover Toluca to Aguascalientes, San Luis Potosi and Querétaro.

Still a problem in Madagascar though-- where only a third of tourists expected are visiting the country and where a new problem is looming for tourism: Somali pirates expanding their operations south!




UPDATE: Egypt

Tourism, which brings in aover $10 billion annually, accounts for almost 12% of Egypt's gross domestic product and directly accounts for close to one in 8 jobs. Roland and I had just arrived in Egypt in 1997 on the day after over 50 tourists were butchered in Luxor. The country emptied out of tourists and we had the whole place to ourselves. It was totally awesome for us-- problematic for the Egyptians. Right now the Egyptian tourist authorities are trying to put on a brave face and claiming most tourists go to the Red Sea resorts and that everything is hunky dory there. This sounds like bullshit and tomorrow is likely to be the biggest day of protests yet-- both bloody and possibly leading the inevitable collapse of the dictatorship. This is the most recent (Thursday) update from the State Department:

This security notice is being issued to update the U.S. citizen community in Egypt about reports that anti-government demonstrations are expected to continue through the weekend. Since the Police Day protests on January 25, there have been daily demonstrations in several areas of Cairo as well as other cities in Egypt. There have been violent clashes that have resulted in injuries and deaths among both civilian demonstrators and police forces. Several websites are posting calls for demonstrations to take place after Friday prayers on January 28. Areas where people congregate after Friday prayers should be avoided. 

While many of the demonstrations have focused on the downtown Cairo/Tahrir Square area, violent confrontations have occurred at other locations both in the Cairo metropolitan area and in Alexandria, Suez, and other cities. Traffic and the Metro system have experienced serious disruptions. Local authorities have announced that the planned demonstrations are illegal and that police will take appropriate action to prevent unauthorized gatherings. 

The Embassy urges American citizens to review their personal plans and remain alert to their surroundings at all times. Americans should avoid areas of planned demonstrations and be aware that spontaneous demonstrations can occur anywhere on short notice. If caught unexpectedly near a demonstration, Americans should obey instructions from police and leave the area as quickly as possible. Americans resident in Egypt should monitor local news broadcasts and American visitors should ask tour guides and hotel officials about any planned demonstrations in the locations they plan to visit. Americans should carry identification and a cell phone which works in Egypt. 

Although the State Department has issued recent-- meaning 2011-- travel alerts for Haiti, Tunisia, the Central African Republic, Niger, Nepal, and Sudan, there hasn't been one issued for Egypt yet.

There seems to be a conspiracy to downplay the seriousness of what's happening-- full on regime change-- in Egypt. Today demonstrations have spread to Giza and Luxor, the two top tourist sites in the country. But tourists are getting no warnings that would jeopardize the tourism industry. It's actually shocking. But pictures like this are starting to get out now and... well, no one wants to get caught in this kind of a traffic jam:



Even with a human chain encircling the Egyptian Museum to prevent looting and with tanks in the streets of Cairo (and several other cities), the tourist industry still has its collective heads in the sand and is basically saying, "everything is pretty normal for a nice swim in the Red Sea. The shark is dead. Come on in!" On the other hand, EgyptAir has stopped all flights out of Cairo.

Egypt's national carrier on Friday temporarily suspended its flights from the capital, while international airlines scrambled to readjust their schedules to accommodate a government-imposed curfew as mounting street protests presented President Hosni Mubarak's government with its most serious challenge ever.

Separately, the United States warned its citizens against any nonessential travel to Egypt and cautioned Americans already in the country to stay put. The warning came hours after Friday's anti-government protests spiraled out of control, forcing the deployment of the military which Egyptian state television said would work alongside the police to enforce the 6 p.m. to 7 a.m. curfew and restore order.

...An official at Cairo's international airport said some foreign airlines had canceled or rerouted flights slated to arrive Friday night, including Air France. The official spoke on condition of anonymity to avoid breaching instructions about contacting the media.

Air France said its once-daily flight to Cairo was rerouted to Beirut and would continue to Cairo on Saturday morning. The airline said its Saturday flight was canceled while the airline tried to amend its schedule.

And after protests erupted at virtually every tourist site in Egypt, the U.S. and Britain warned tourists away.

"If you are already in Egypt, you are strongly advised to stay put," it said. "We are not, at present, advising British nationals to leave the country."

Foreign Secretary William Hague said the safety of British nationals was "absolutely paramount".

"In light of the ongoing demonstrations in Egypt we have carefully reviewed our advice and now advise against all but essential travel to Cairo, Alexandria, Luxor and Suez.

"This does not affect transits through Cairo airport for onward travel to other destinations, and it does not cover Egypt's Red Sea resorts."

...Abta, the organisation formerly known as the Association of British Travel Agents, said it had not heard of any reports of British package tourists being affected by the unrest but said some tour operators had cancelled trips as a precaution.

Travel firm Thomas Cook said it had cancelled all excursions to Cairo this weekend from the Red Sea resorts. But it said flights were operating in and out of Sharm El Sheikh airport as normal this weekend.

British Airways has warned of changes to flight schedules to Cairo because of a curfew imposed in the capital.

Meanwhile the Egyptian Museum has been partially looted. Photos:

http://yfrog.com/hsu6aezj
http://yfrog.com/h0arrqj
http://yfrog.com/h8ijfrj
http://yfrog.com/h067787496j

Tourist agencies in the West conspired with the Egyptian Tourist industry to downplay the dangers in that country. And the US State Department and British Foreign Office both went along-- seemingly more concerned with the Egyptian tourist industry than with the safety of their own nationals. And today tourists are desperate to get out of Cairo-- and can't. Western governments are finally starting to warn their nationals.

Hundreds of people crowded the capital's main international airport hoping for a flight out on Saturday but Western carriers were canceling, delaying or suspending service after days of violent unrest.

A British airline turned around its Cairo-bound jet in mid-flight.

Between 1,500 and 2,000 people flocked to Cairo Intentional Airport, many without reservations.
Officials said that about half were tourists and half Egyptians.

British Midlands International said its flight from London Heathrow to Cairo turned around because a shift in the start of a nighttime curfew from 6 p.m. to 4 p.m. had made it impossible to land in time for passengers to make it out of the airport.

Lufthansa and Delta have both canceled their Egyptian flights. And the U.S. State Department has done an about face, going from trying to reassure nervous tourists that it was perfectly safe to travel to Egypt-- and not upset the fragile economy-- to preparing to airlift all Americans out of the country!

he American Embassy in Cairo said Sunday it is making arrangements to begin flying Americans out of Egypt on Monday, as an outbreak of mass looting added new dangers to a nation rocked by protests seeking an end to President Hosni Mubarak's rule.

The U.S. government warned that Americans should consider leaving Egypt as soon as possible as residents of Cairo were taking steps to protect themselves against the spreading lawlessness.

Mubarak thugs are trying to incite civil war and mayhem by unleashing a wave of domestic terror against the Egyptian people, including the looting and home break-ins. It is the last gasp of a crumbling tyranny.

And I bet British tourists, who were fed the same line of malarkey by their Foreign Office-- again, putting the Egyptian economy's well-being ahead of their own citizens' safety-- are pissed off as they struggle to get out while they can.

Desperate holidaymakers, heeding Foreign Office advice to leave Egypt, found flights grounded as staff abandoned their posts to join in the national protests.

Passengers who risked venturing out of their hotels to travel to the airport found scenes of complete chaos with queues of several hours snaking around the terminal buildings.

Unable to leave due to the night-time curfew, many were forced to bed down in the departure lounges.

Those stranded said the entire airport had ran out of food and water adding to the misery.

I hope Egyptians are kinder to the Bits than Brits were to travelers who were stranded in their country over the December storms when every conceivable strategy to fleece trapped passengers was carried out to the max.

Meaningful Hotels

The Taj in Mumbai

Aswan was the end of the line for our 1997 cruise up the Nile. One of Egypt's periodic anti-tourist atrocities, this one across the river from Luxor-- scores of Swiss and Japanese shot and macheted to death amid the well preserved remains of the mortuary temple of Hatshepsut (the female pharaoh), led to an exodus of tourists from Egypt on the day we arrived. We had the country virtually to ourselves (not counting the 65 million or so Egyptians). Or we did until we got in Aswan. It only rains there once a decade but for some reason it was the only place in Egypt filled with tourists while we were there.

There's only one serious luxury hotel in Aswan, the Old Cataract which dates to 1899 and is famous for having hosted Winston Churchill, Agha Khan, King Farouk and is renowned as the place where Agatha Christie wrote Death on the Nile. After barely seeing another tourist for most of a month, we were told there was no room at the inn. 130 rooms in the middle of nowhere with every tourist in the country having fled Osama bin-Laden's future partner, Ayman Zawahiri and no room for us? Impossible! I wouldn't take no for an answer and we wound up in a windowless storage room that smelled of toxic chemicals. But we did spend a night at the fabulous Old Cataract (which is currently closed for renovations and will open as the Sofitel Legend next year).

Yesterday's Independent featured a travel piece about hotels becoming potent symbols and national institutions, the way the Old Cataract is, although the author doesn't mention it. He concentrates on the Taj Mahal in Mumbai, and three I've never been to, the al-Mansour in Baghdad, the American Colony in East Jerusalem and the Zhiwa Ling in Paro, Bhutan.

Hotels can be more than just places to sleep and eat. The best can be worlds in themselves – indeed for many travellers hotels are their world while lodged in a distant, strange and perhaps dangerous land, and so become of huge importance.

They are at once home and refuge, places of meeting and of escapist fantasy. And if their architecture and ambience is particularly characterful and distinguished, some hotels even take on the role of symbol of the city in which they stand: historic and cultural landmarks that in various and almost mysterious ways represent national aspirations, ambitions or beliefs. These are the most fascinating hotels, always rewarding as objects of study and contemplation.

...* al-Mansour Melia, Al Salhiya Street, Baghdad, Iraq (00 964 1 537 0041). Doubles start at US$60 (£40), room only.

* Taj Mahal Palace and Tower, Apollo Bunder, Mumbai, India (00 91 22 6665 3366; tajhotels.com). Doubles start at R16,115 (£208), including breakfast.

* American Colony, Nablus Road, Jerusalem, Israel (00 972 2 627 9777; americancolony.com). Doubles start at US$440 (£293), including breakfast.

* Zhiwa Ling Hotel, Paro, Kingdom of Bhutan (00 975 8 271 277; zhiwaling.com). Doubles start at US$198 (£132), including breakfast.

Odd collection of choices. I would have included the George V and the Plaza Athénée in Paris, the Rambaugh Palace in Jaipur, the Park Hyatt in Tokyo, the Four Seasons in Istanbul, Raffles in Singapore, the Cipriani in Venice, the King David in Jerusalem, the Peninsula in Hong Kong, the Oriental in Bangkok, Le Sirenuse on the Amalfi Coast, both the Four Seasons and the Principe di Savoia in Milan, and the Mamounia in Marrakesh-- although the Esbelli in Ürgüp is more wonderful than any of them. And in the last few years I've learned that renting villas and apartments is much more suitable for me when I travel-- even if they're not as iconic as the Independent's picks.