Tourism In The Middle East And Magreb? Barely A Pulse

Arizona tourism went into the crapper as soon as violent extremists started running around the state with hate messages and unrestricted guns. Even Frommer warned the state is too dangerous to visit. I know Wisconsin is a popular tourist destination year round and I'm not sure if the right-wing turmoil in Madison is having any impact on the state's tourist industry-- not to mention the fried cheese curd and bratwurst makers. But some of the other areas where people are fighting for the human rights and dignity-- like Libya, Bahrain and Tunisia-- the tourist industry is dead in the water. Wikipedia's Libya Travel site starts with an ominous-looking warning sign: "WARNING: As of February 2011, Libya is in a severe state of political and civil crisis. Military, police and security forces are using deadly force in attempts to quell civil unrest in many parts of the country. Reports have emerged of thousands of people having been killed or seriously injured. If you are already in Libya, stay away from large public gatherings and try to gain independent and reliable information about the political and civil situation in your area. Try to organize a secure exit from Libya by contacting your country's embassy or their representatives either in Libya, your home country or neighbouring nations. The governments of many nations have issued formal travel warnings, research these warnings in depth before travelling to or moving about within Libya. Many nations have also recommended their citizens in Libya should leave the country immediately and some have managed to arrange evacuation flights or other means of travel. The situation is highly volatile, care and elevated situational awareness must be exercised at all times if attempting to move about or transit through effected areas of Libya." Not very alluring-- and a disaster for the country's small but developing tourist industry.

Morocco's tourist industry is far more developed-- and a crucial part of the country's economy. Tourism is way down as Europeans-- forget Americans-- wonder if the country is safe or likely to be the scene of violent protests like the rest of the Maghreb.

As the Egyptian and Tunisian destinations were collapsing, travel agents all over Europe were offering Morocco and the Canary Islands as alternatives for cancelled trips.

In Germany, Europe's greatest market, travel agents in late January and early February openly campaigned for Morocco as the safe and quiet alternative to Tunisia and Egypt in local media. Similar campaigns were registered in the UK, Scandinavia and France.

Consequently, flights to Morocco from Europe over the last few weeks have been fuller than ever during a low season. Morocco today published record arrivals for January, and the growing Moroccan tourism industry was making important extra revenues.

But these short heydays are now over. Each and every day, international media are overflowing with reports from the protest wave spreading to new countries. There is a widespread impression it is only a question of time for unrest and revolution to reach Morocco.

An American tourist spends something like 8 times what other tourists spend... and Americans have been the first to cancel their trips to anyplace remotely dangerous-sounding. Even now, with Europeans beginning to trickle back into Egypt, Americans are booking trips to Hawaii, Las Vegas and Bermuda instead.

Egypt earns upwards of $13 billion a year from its tourism industry -- an integral part of the nation's struggling economy.

But Masood Ahmed, director of the International Monetary Fund's Middle East and Central Asia Department, told a press conference last week the decline in tourism was likely to seriously hurt Egypt.

"The recent popular protests in Egypt will definitely have a short-term economic cost," Ahmed said. "We will see tourism and investment going down, and certainly the 5.5% growth rate that we saw in the last two quarters of 2010 will likely be considerably lower in the next six months."

And that decline in tourism isn't likely to change anytime soon. The U.S. State Department is still warning Americans to stay away from Egypt for "non-essential travel."

"Due to continuing uncertainties regarding the restructuring of Egyptian government institutions, the security situation remains unresolved," the department said in a travel warning posted on its website. "Until the redeployment of Egyptian civilian police is fully restored, police response to emergency requests for assistance or reports of crime may be delayed."

The U.S. government has also ordered the departure of all nonemergency personnel from Egypt. Cairo is one of the largest duty stations in the world, with thousands of U.S. employees administering economic and military aid.

But British Prime Minister David Cameron visited Egypt this week-- and his government is allowing British tourists to return to Sharm el-Sheik and the Red Sea resorts. So has Germany's government.

Today's NY Times puts on a brighter face, pointing out that Tahrir Square has become a new tourist destination.

Many tourist sites in and around Cairo are open again-- from the pyramids to the Khan el-Khalili souk to the Egyptian Antiquities Museum. But these days the most sought-after photo is not one of Tutankhamen’s mask but of Tahrir (Liberation) Square, a mammoth traffic circle the world had stared at for three weeks on television. Named after Egypt’s 1919 liberation from the British, Tahrir Square is a top destination for many of the Western tourists who have begun trickling into Egypt in recent days.

“It is amazing what has happened here,” said Aart Blijdorp, a 60-year-old civil servant from the Netherlands. He had flown in a few days earlier to attend the seven-day anniversary of Mr. Mubarak’s resignation, a gathering on Tahrir Square that the protesters hope will become a weekly Friday event to remind the current military government of their continuing demands for reform. “The optimism in the air was so apparent on the news, I had to come feel it for myself,” Mr. Blijdorp said, after introducing me to two young protesters he had met in the square. They had become Mr. Blijdorp’s tour guides around Cairo.

“We have been taking him around because he is traveling on his own,” said Omar Ahmed, 23, a civil engineer, adding that they were off to the Citadel, but that Mr. Blijdorp wanted to come back to Tahrir Square first.

“The good news is he is seeing everything fast, because no one is here,” said Hamdy Mohammed, 24, a law student. “But we want tourists to come back because it is a new Egypt now.”

“So far, Tahrir is my favorite place,” said Mr. Blijdorp, who had visited the Pyramids the day before.

The allure of visiting Egypt at this moment hasn’t been lost on some tour operators. For example, Akorn Destination Management (akorndmc.com), which bills itself as an organization that delivers “inspirational travel experiences,” is offering “Tahrir Square-- Egypt Is Making History,” a trip that includes a Nile cruise, a walk through Tahrir Square and a stay at the Semiramis InterContinental Hotel, which is near the square.

As Rick Zeolla, the general manager of the Cairo Marriott, where Christiane Amanpour and many other journalists stayed, put it: “Right now Egypt is like having a fast pass at Disney. People should come over.”

Amr Badr, managing director of Abercrombie & Kent in Egypt and the Middle East, believes now is a unique time to visit Egypt and see history in the making. “I think people will immediately feel the energy,” he said, noting that the streets are now cleaner than they have been in recent memory, and that Tahrir Square has become a “living exhibit-- a sort of Speaker’s Corner” in Egypt that they plan to promote. Egyptians, he added, are feeling a newly found sense of pride in their country. “If Egypt was good before, it will be better now,” he said.

Michael Koth, general manager of the Semiramis InterContinental, said his clients are no longer asking for a “Nile view” room but a Tahrir view. “The early guests we are seeing are more independent, well seasoned and globally focused travelers,” Mr. Koth said.

Mali was probably more "dangerous" when nothing was especially going on, politically speaking. Here below is a photo I took of Roland on rue Guide Mouamar El Kaddafi in Timbuktu. Last week we were in Guadalajara, right after a terrorist attack that left nearly 50 people dead or wounded. Everyone we knew told us not to go. Yet the place seemed safer than New York or L.A.-- and the prices were down and the crowds much smaller, making everything easier. We love Guadalajara anyway, but it was even better with all the wooses scared off. Nothing would get me to Libya 'til the Qaddafis are dead-- which could be weeks away-- but we're already thinking about a trip there soon. Arizona... not so much.

How Does Political Unrest Impact Tourism?

2010 was a good year for tourism worldwide, with much of the uptick in Asia. According to a new report from the United Nations World Tourism Organization, 2010 saw 935 million people traveling (both for business and leisure) internationally, up 6.7% over 2009, but only 2% above the pre-recession levels of 2008. Obviously, it's a sign of the rebounding economy. Europe's tourist industry-- like it's economy-- was sluggish (up 3%), despite political stability. North America, where the dollar is still cheap, saw a healthy increase (8%), even if tourists are being advised to stay away from dangerous parts of the country like Arizona. The report attributed a slowdown in tourism in Mexico to the impact of swine flu, rather than drug-violence and out-of-control corruption.

Last week, we looked at the deteriorating tourist situation in Tunisia, with tourists being evacuated and flights being canceled because of the political situation there. Today, with reports that the once much feared Tunisian police have been joining the protestors in Tunis, the tourism industry is still uncertain about which way things are going to go for that country's tourist industry. At first a country that markets itself as a comfy, apolitical Mediterranean beach resort saw only cancellations and heard the giant sucking sound of a crucial foreign currency provider going down the drain. Optimists-- like Tunisia's ambassador to Spain-- see the successful revolt as an eventual boost for tourism there.

"Tourists were a bit worried," Ambassador Mohamed Ridha Kechrid conceded in an interview on the opening day of the five-day international tourism trade fair, Fitur, in Madrid.

"Now order has been re-established and from now on tourists can come back to Tunisia," he said.

"There was a crisis of confidence, which is bad for everyone, for Tunisians, for foreign investors and of course for tourists," he added.

But once democratic elections have been organized "Tunisia will be even more beautiful, more credible... and this change will be beneficial for Tunisian tourism and for the economy."

And the UN World Tourism Organisation's Secretary General Taleb Rifai says the industry there should recovery quickly.

Rifai noted that tourists left "in a speedy and regular manner," but many said they would return once the situation returns to normal.

"The history, the infrastructure and the stakeholders in Tunisia are entrenched enough to be able to recover rather quickly," he said.

"Of course, how quick this would be is very much dependent on the political developments that are unfolding," he said, noting that a new government is to be announced and new elections held.

"As far as tourism is concerned, we think that in the medium term, not the long term, Tunisia will come back to what it was."

It certainly has come back strong in Thailand since the collapse of the tourist industry there in 2008-'09. Less than a year ago we were reporting how the tourist industry was still falling apart in the face of continuing political turmoil. This year tourist arrivals were up by 10.8%!

Overall, arrivals in the first nine months of the year grew by 13.3% y-o-y, an impressive recovery from the 5.0% fall in arrivals experienced in 2009.

It is a positive sign that Thailand’s tourist industry has recovered so strongly from the 2008-2009 downturn and is testament Thailand’s ongoing attractiveness as a tourist destination, despite the sporadic outbreaks of social unrest. Much of this unrest has been concentrated around Bangkok, with the coastal tourist areas largely unaffected. As such, we expect tourist arrivals will have continued to pick up, with the high season around Christmas providing a good end to the year.

In a few weeks Roland and I are going down to Mexico for a few days and we decided to spend the time in one of our favorite cities there, Guadalajara. I haven't seen any reports of violence there but the prices were unbelievably low. Airfairs were cheap and hotel rates were phenomenal. The rack rate for the place we stayed last time is around $900/night for a suite. We only the most modest bargaining, we booked it for less than $200/night this time! That's the other side of the impact of violence on tourism, which is still disastrous in Mexico

Mexico’s drug wars lead the week’s financial news again as the city’s wealthiest city, Monterrey, was hit by a spate of 23 killings along with one woman dying of a heart attack upon witnessing a massacre in the city.

Home to some of Mexico-- and the United States’ biggest companies, including Cemex (CX) and General Electric (GE), Monterrey’s income is double the national average. The state of Nuevo Leon, of which Monterrey is the capital, however, has seen at least 60 killings in 2011 alone.

The violence is not confined to drug cartels and that is what is worrying business leaders. A US company executive was abducted, beaten and robbed of his armored car earlier this year while both Fitch and Standard & Poor’s both downgraded the country’s credit rating at the end of 2009, citing drug violence.

Not-so Accidental Tourists: While cities such as Juárez and Tijuana on the northern border are used to the violence, Monterrey and Oaxaca-- which saw the third Mexican mayor killed in just the first two weeks of 2011-- are slowly becoming accustomed to it, pushing out business and tourism.

Evidence of this was news that three cruise lines, Royal Caribbean Cruises, Norwegian Cruise Lines and Carnival Corp, announced they would be ending or at least scaling back trips to Mexico from California. While none of their destinations have been affected by the drug violence, customers, they claim, aren't distinguishing between regions of Mexico and are put off the country as a whole by news of violence.

While international tourism may be dropping, there are signs that domestic tourism, or at least travel, is on the up, with the news that InterJet, a low-cost domestic carrier, signed a contract to buy 20 Sukhoi-SuperJet aeroplanes for $650m. The first deliveries are scheduled for the second half of 2012. Flights on the new planes are likely to cover Toluca to Aguascalientes, San Luis Potosi and Querétaro.

Still a problem in Madagascar though-- where only a third of tourists expected are visiting the country and where a new problem is looming for tourism: Somali pirates expanding their operations south!




UPDATE: Egypt

Tourism, which brings in aover $10 billion annually, accounts for almost 12% of Egypt's gross domestic product and directly accounts for close to one in 8 jobs. Roland and I had just arrived in Egypt in 1997 on the day after over 50 tourists were butchered in Luxor. The country emptied out of tourists and we had the whole place to ourselves. It was totally awesome for us-- problematic for the Egyptians. Right now the Egyptian tourist authorities are trying to put on a brave face and claiming most tourists go to the Red Sea resorts and that everything is hunky dory there. This sounds like bullshit and tomorrow is likely to be the biggest day of protests yet-- both bloody and possibly leading the inevitable collapse of the dictatorship. This is the most recent (Thursday) update from the State Department:

This security notice is being issued to update the U.S. citizen community in Egypt about reports that anti-government demonstrations are expected to continue through the weekend. Since the Police Day protests on January 25, there have been daily demonstrations in several areas of Cairo as well as other cities in Egypt. There have been violent clashes that have resulted in injuries and deaths among both civilian demonstrators and police forces. Several websites are posting calls for demonstrations to take place after Friday prayers on January 28. Areas where people congregate after Friday prayers should be avoided. 

While many of the demonstrations have focused on the downtown Cairo/Tahrir Square area, violent confrontations have occurred at other locations both in the Cairo metropolitan area and in Alexandria, Suez, and other cities. Traffic and the Metro system have experienced serious disruptions. Local authorities have announced that the planned demonstrations are illegal and that police will take appropriate action to prevent unauthorized gatherings. 

The Embassy urges American citizens to review their personal plans and remain alert to their surroundings at all times. Americans should avoid areas of planned demonstrations and be aware that spontaneous demonstrations can occur anywhere on short notice. If caught unexpectedly near a demonstration, Americans should obey instructions from police and leave the area as quickly as possible. Americans resident in Egypt should monitor local news broadcasts and American visitors should ask tour guides and hotel officials about any planned demonstrations in the locations they plan to visit. Americans should carry identification and a cell phone which works in Egypt. 

Although the State Department has issued recent-- meaning 2011-- travel alerts for Haiti, Tunisia, the Central African Republic, Niger, Nepal, and Sudan, there hasn't been one issued for Egypt yet.

There seems to be a conspiracy to downplay the seriousness of what's happening-- full on regime change-- in Egypt. Today demonstrations have spread to Giza and Luxor, the two top tourist sites in the country. But tourists are getting no warnings that would jeopardize the tourism industry. It's actually shocking. But pictures like this are starting to get out now and... well, no one wants to get caught in this kind of a traffic jam:



Even with a human chain encircling the Egyptian Museum to prevent looting and with tanks in the streets of Cairo (and several other cities), the tourist industry still has its collective heads in the sand and is basically saying, "everything is pretty normal for a nice swim in the Red Sea. The shark is dead. Come on in!" On the other hand, EgyptAir has stopped all flights out of Cairo.

Egypt's national carrier on Friday temporarily suspended its flights from the capital, while international airlines scrambled to readjust their schedules to accommodate a government-imposed curfew as mounting street protests presented President Hosni Mubarak's government with its most serious challenge ever.

Separately, the United States warned its citizens against any nonessential travel to Egypt and cautioned Americans already in the country to stay put. The warning came hours after Friday's anti-government protests spiraled out of control, forcing the deployment of the military which Egyptian state television said would work alongside the police to enforce the 6 p.m. to 7 a.m. curfew and restore order.

...An official at Cairo's international airport said some foreign airlines had canceled or rerouted flights slated to arrive Friday night, including Air France. The official spoke on condition of anonymity to avoid breaching instructions about contacting the media.

Air France said its once-daily flight to Cairo was rerouted to Beirut and would continue to Cairo on Saturday morning. The airline said its Saturday flight was canceled while the airline tried to amend its schedule.

And after protests erupted at virtually every tourist site in Egypt, the U.S. and Britain warned tourists away.

"If you are already in Egypt, you are strongly advised to stay put," it said. "We are not, at present, advising British nationals to leave the country."

Foreign Secretary William Hague said the safety of British nationals was "absolutely paramount".

"In light of the ongoing demonstrations in Egypt we have carefully reviewed our advice and now advise against all but essential travel to Cairo, Alexandria, Luxor and Suez.

"This does not affect transits through Cairo airport for onward travel to other destinations, and it does not cover Egypt's Red Sea resorts."

...Abta, the organisation formerly known as the Association of British Travel Agents, said it had not heard of any reports of British package tourists being affected by the unrest but said some tour operators had cancelled trips as a precaution.

Travel firm Thomas Cook said it had cancelled all excursions to Cairo this weekend from the Red Sea resorts. But it said flights were operating in and out of Sharm El Sheikh airport as normal this weekend.

British Airways has warned of changes to flight schedules to Cairo because of a curfew imposed in the capital.

Meanwhile the Egyptian Museum has been partially looted. Photos:

http://yfrog.com/hsu6aezj
http://yfrog.com/h0arrqj
http://yfrog.com/h8ijfrj
http://yfrog.com/h067787496j

Tourist agencies in the West conspired with the Egyptian Tourist industry to downplay the dangers in that country. And the US State Department and British Foreign Office both went along-- seemingly more concerned with the Egyptian tourist industry than with the safety of their own nationals. And today tourists are desperate to get out of Cairo-- and can't. Western governments are finally starting to warn their nationals.

Hundreds of people crowded the capital's main international airport hoping for a flight out on Saturday but Western carriers were canceling, delaying or suspending service after days of violent unrest.

A British airline turned around its Cairo-bound jet in mid-flight.

Between 1,500 and 2,000 people flocked to Cairo Intentional Airport, many without reservations.
Officials said that about half were tourists and half Egyptians.

British Midlands International said its flight from London Heathrow to Cairo turned around because a shift in the start of a nighttime curfew from 6 p.m. to 4 p.m. had made it impossible to land in time for passengers to make it out of the airport.

Lufthansa and Delta have both canceled their Egyptian flights. And the U.S. State Department has done an about face, going from trying to reassure nervous tourists that it was perfectly safe to travel to Egypt-- and not upset the fragile economy-- to preparing to airlift all Americans out of the country!

he American Embassy in Cairo said Sunday it is making arrangements to begin flying Americans out of Egypt on Monday, as an outbreak of mass looting added new dangers to a nation rocked by protests seeking an end to President Hosni Mubarak's rule.

The U.S. government warned that Americans should consider leaving Egypt as soon as possible as residents of Cairo were taking steps to protect themselves against the spreading lawlessness.

Mubarak thugs are trying to incite civil war and mayhem by unleashing a wave of domestic terror against the Egyptian people, including the looting and home break-ins. It is the last gasp of a crumbling tyranny.

And I bet British tourists, who were fed the same line of malarkey by their Foreign Office-- again, putting the Egyptian economy's well-being ahead of their own citizens' safety-- are pissed off as they struggle to get out while they can.

Desperate holidaymakers, heeding Foreign Office advice to leave Egypt, found flights grounded as staff abandoned their posts to join in the national protests.

Passengers who risked venturing out of their hotels to travel to the airport found scenes of complete chaos with queues of several hours snaking around the terminal buildings.

Unable to leave due to the night-time curfew, many were forced to bed down in the departure lounges.

Those stranded said the entire airport had ran out of food and water adding to the misery.

I hope Egyptians are kinder to the Bits than Brits were to travelers who were stranded in their country over the December storms when every conceivable strategy to fleece trapped passengers was carried out to the max.

Better Forget Carthage For A Bit! Let's Go Juba!

I just keep going to Morocco again and again. True, I once spent a month in Egypt, but when it comes to North Africa I fell in love with Morocco in 1969 and was just there again-- maybe the 15th time?-- for most of December. Roland is always bringing up Tunisia and Libya (not to mention Ethiopia and Mauritania, where as many as one-fifth of the population are still slaves) as places we should go. We drove down an endless rutted road to sleepy, art-deco Sidi Ifni once and we spent a month in Mali once, but that's about as close as I'm getting to Mauritania and I don't care how groovy the beach is near Nouakchott or how ancient Ouadane, Chinguetti, Oualata and Tichitt are.



I read Skeletons on the Zahara, about Americans who were captured and made into slaves there and I'm staying away. Even if Algeria isn't, Tunisia has always been a lot more plausible and Europeans flock there, mostly for the shiny new beach resorts around Monastir, especially the cheap ones catering to pachae-tours-- although I have to admit I've always been captivated by the history of Carthage. Tunisia has been trying hard to develop tourism as a major economic sector and as many as 11.5% of the population depends on it for their livelihood. It's overrun with Libyan, French, German, Italian and British tourists; plenty of Eastern Europeans have also been coming but Americans stay away. With the uncertainty of this week's events, Americans are likely to stay away for the immediate future even more resolutely. Russia just evacuated all its nationals today and the uprising devastated the tourist industry... at least for now.

While most Tunisians celebrate the victory of the people in ousting Dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, the country's key tourism industry sees a large negative impact from the riots and revolution. Tourists are already being evacuated from Tunisia.

While President Ben Ali was a totalitarian leader, tourists from Europe and the Arab world kept streaming to the country at an ever-increasing rate. Only few of the arrivals did even know that Tunisia was a dictatorship, even if they came year after year. Superficially, Tunisia seemed a country in balance.

This widely held picture of Tunisia as a peaceful and safe Mediterranean destination has been completely tarnished during the last week. The Tunisian revolution has been followed closely by media in all of the country's main markets.

With the state of emergency declared in all of Tunisia, and with the unclear political situation after the fall of President Ben Ali, governments from Spain in the south, via Switzerland, Germany and the UK, to Norway in the north have issued travel warnings for Tunisia.

Typically, these travel warnings state that "unnecessary" travels to Tunisia should be avoided. "Unnecessary" travels of course include tourist trips.

In most countries that are Tunisia's main markets, this has great implications. It means travellers can, without extra costs, cancel their trips. Further, it often means charter companies must cancel their trips. In many occasions, it even means travel insurances lose their value, further limiting travellers' ability to visit the country.

In the case of Tunisia, the development has been even more dramatic for the travel industry. Borders, including the Tunisian air space, were closed this afternoon, preventing tourists from entering or leaving the popular destination.

Reports from Tunisia indicate most foreigners on holiday in the country are reacting with relative calm to the ongoing political turmoil. Although the death of a Swiss-Tunisian woman-- who was shot as she watched the protesters clashing with police from her second floor balcony-- has led to an unease among many travellers.

The unsafe situation has prompted several tour operators to consider an evacuation of charter tourists. British operator Thomas Cook has already started repatriating 1,800 holidaymakers, the company stated today. Six extraordinary flights have been ordered to organise the evacuation, although the closure of Tunisian air space may complicate the operation.

Also some German and Belgian tour operators have made arrangements to evacuate their holidaymakers. The move followed a call by the German Foreign Ministry saying tourists in Tunisia could demand an earlier return given the dangerous situation.

Meanwhile, one cancellation after the other is ticking in, with tour operators and ordinary airlines cancelling most planned trips to Tunisia for the weeks to come. Even cruise ships have started announcing cancellations of stop-overs in Tunis.

While the Tunisian economy is very diversified and the tourism sector only contributes with around 7 percent of the country's GDP, the sector is among the largest employers in the country and gathers for a large number of small and medium-sized companies. Tunisia's tourism sector is estimated to provide some 350,00o jobs, representing some 12 percent of the country's entire workforce.

A longer downturn in the tourism sector due to continued turmoil therefore would deepen the social problems related to a high unemployment rate in the country. These social problems were the direct cause of the protests starting in December, which led to the political riots that finally led to the fall of President Ben Ali today.

Tunisia, along with other North African countries, has experienced impressive growth rates in its tourism sector during the last decade, even during the financial crisis. The sector was among the most promising to further reduce unemployment in the country, with many new resorts being planned along the country's Mediterranean coast.

The week long successful-- and relatively peaceful-- referendum, which is resulting in independence for southern Sudan, on the other hand, offers intrepid travelers a new destination that few have seen. The oft-repeated thing about tourism in Sudan: it's hard to get in but if you manage to, you can visit some awesome tourist attractions without ever seeing another tourist. All through Sudan the people are reputed to be among the friendliest and most hospitable on earth. Travelers are still a novelty for the people there so they are really as excited to experience you as you are to experience them. On the other hand, you can't use American credit cards there and in the South, there is malaria, deadly "drinking" water and poisonous spiders and snakes to worry about.

But you can fly into Juba directly from Nairobi, Cairo, Entebbe and Addis Ababa as well as Khartoum. Juba, the capital of the world's newest country, is small enough to walk all through in a day. Trip Advisor readers recommend 3 hotels and 3 restaurants but Juba is going to be a boom town really fast now and things are going to get crazy for the next year. Remember, Southern Sudan-- like Mauritania-- was predominantly a source of dark skinned slaves for lighter skinned Arabs. There's a lot of change that will be happening in the new nation now.

A tribal chief preferred not to ponder the meticulous nature of turning aspirations into a nation: "Look at those happy men over there," said Yout Manyual. "They have been here for three days and every night they dance with drums until morning. This is our right until all the votes are counted. We know then that development will come and children will be taken to school."

Beyond the roadside money-changers and the old army trucks half buried in the dirt, Dr. Hassan Awule made rounds at the unfinished Morobo Clinic he started during the war. He said life would improve in coming years but worried that corruption and tribalism-- the spoilers of many African nations-- might jeopardize a new country. As a lizard scurried up a wall, he opened the door to what he hopes one day will be an operating room.

"We began with just a pharmacy," he said. "Then we added one bed, then two, then three, and now we have 40 beds. They are not enough. We are treating malaria, typhoid, HIV, intestinal worms and infection. Many families can't afford care so we give them credit. You can't turn them away."

Children lay curled next to mothers, two women cut squares from a roll of gauze, and thin men slept on beds in tiny rooms and hallways. The dry season has left the clinic's well nearly empty and Awule pays money he barely has for water trucked in from the river. A genial man with a shaved head and a mercurial demeanor, the doctor said that one day he would open a pediatrics unit and a morgue.

"We had slavery," he said as a stray cow grazed outside his fence, "and now it's time for liberation."

The word "slavery" echoes in the south, seared into the public consciousness, an heirloom that makes independence sweet, if undefined. Southern Sudanese are more eloquent in explaining past persecutions and wars wrought by the Arab-controlled north than they are at rhapsodizing about the future. They know only that it's out there, and should soon belong to them.

Don't forget your Bradt Guide.